One year after the ill-fated air crash involving an aircraft belonging to Dana Air in the Iju-Ishaga area of Lagos, Lagos State Governor on Monday commissioned a cenotaph in honour of the 157 late passengers.
The cenotaph is built on four plots at the junction between Popoola and Olaniyi Street, by Toyin Bus Stop and it holds the replica of the Dana aircraft broken into two.
Speaking to the huge crowd that gathered at the event, Governor Fashola said the State Government spent several millions of naira carrying out tests to ascertain the true identity of the victims. He also said that although the incident happened one year ago, the memory has lingered in the hearts of bereaved family members. He lamented that the cause of the accident remains yet unknown.“But while the cause was at the time unknown, our collective tragedy was immediately unfolding. Many nations and their nationalities from India, China, Germany, the United States and Nigeria were united by a common grief: the loss of their loved ones,” he said.
“It was an accident that took place in Lagos. But its impact and reach were beyond our borders. Men and women, Muslims and Christians, Hindus and atheists became joined by a common pain. It was a horrific day.
“I remember that I had promised myself to rest a little that afternoon and prepare for a new week. Just like many of you, I remember where I was. I had just settled on my sofa to watch the television when the news filtered in. Initially, I was told it was a cargo plane in Ghana. As I sought to make further enquiries, my thoughts were racing. The cargo was replaceable, how many crew members were on board. I was in this reverie of a damage limitation calculation when my enquiry revealed that it was a passenger plane.”
He observed that no one could have predicted what sad and painful thoughts would accompany people to bed that night. According to the governor, a year may seem like a long time but for the families and friends of the men women and children lost, that day does not feel like history.
“The memories of that day are probably as fresh as they are painful; particularly today when you are forced to confront the thoughts you may have pushed to the innermost recesses of your minds, just to enable you get from one day to the next.
"What does one say at a time like this? What does one say when words will never be enough? Many of us cannot even begin to imagine how great your suffering must have been this last one year.“We can only empathize with you, in the vain hope that our empathy will bring some relief. We can only utter words we know will never fill the voids but which we nonetheless pray will bring some comfort.
“What I do know is that today, although our grief is deep and our sense of loss unquantifiable, our heads are not bowed. We are not crestfallen. Your undying spirit to continue and your presence here today is a sign of monumental courage.
“It is not courage without pain. No. It is courage defined by dignity and resolve to get on with life inspite of the pain. I stand before you today, the representative of a government and a State that shared your pain. A State whose lot it was to play host in the most unwelcome of situations a year ago today.”Recalling details of the sad incident of the day, Governor Fashola noted that even the Okuchukwu family that did not fly also shared the pain.
“Electricity had a part to play. A mother and a father in a building close to this site were spending time with their four children. The mother was plaiting the hair of the youngest child, a girl. They did not have power. Suddenly, electricity came and the whole community knew. Strangely their flat did not have power.“The father instructed the eldest child to get the local electrician to come and solve the problem so that they could iron their uniform in readiness for school on the next day, a Monday. The boy took some time returning, so the father sent his younger brother to go and locate him.
“In pure innocence, the third child, a girl, followed her brother. As soon as they stepped out of the building, Dana Air flight 992 descended on their home. They became lost in the massive crowd. The eldest was eleven, followed by the nine year old and the seven year old. Their parents and youngest sibling were consumed by a flight they did not board.”
Continuing, Fashola said: “God works in wondrous ways. I met them at the site on the 4th of June. Our paths have remained intertwined since then. They are doing well. They have become a lifetime commitment for my wife and I to ensure that their promise is fulfilled. Their origins are in Enugu State. But their home is Lagos. The home of all Nigerians; and this memorial will always remind us about how we met.
“On that fateful Sunday morning, the men, women and children of the ill-fated Dana Air Flight 992 had journeyed more than 700km from Abuja to Lagos and were minutes away from arrival and reunion.“There are no words that can reliably convey the depth of our heartache. Anything we say today will be an inadequate expression of what we truly carry in our hearts. The greatest and truest testimony will not be in our words but in our actions.
“Apart from the Okuchukwu family, there were so many other stories. Stories of great people, Nigerians and non-Nigerians that time will not permit me to fully narrate.
“But I must share some of them with you in remembrance because they symbolize the spirit of men, women and children who were bound together in the common destiny of an ill-fated flight.“We remember Tosin Anibaba who loved her job and the life she was building with her husband and two-year old daughter. She worked at the FATE foundation, an NGO that is dedicated to reducing unemployment. Those that knew Tosin said that she always wore a huge smile on her face.
“We remember Dunni Doherty who was a bright and determined young woman. She had returned to Lagos after her studies in the UK and had taken up a job as a teacher at the Lagos Preparatory school. She was an inspiration not just to her students but to all her friends. This bright young lady will be missed by all those who knew her.
“We remember Eke Chijokie, one of the crew members, who was not even supposed to be on the flight. He was only on board because he was called in to relieve a sick colleague at the last minute. Being the dutiful employee he was, he responded immediately. He is survived by his wife, Elizabeth and their two-year old son.
“Vivian Effiong was also a dedicated crew member. Her colleagues described her as a caring, selfless and lovable person. Vivian was just a month away from marrying her fiancé who lived in the United Kingdom. She is survived by her 16-year old daughter.
“The story of the Anyene family is one that will live long in the memory. All of six of them perished in the crash. Maimuna the wife and mother of 4 beautiful children - Kamsiyonna (3), Kainetochi (2), Kaimarachi (2) and Kobichimee (five months), was a graduate of the University of Ibadan before she moved to the United States. Her husband, Onyeka Anyene, was a successful lawyer with offices in both Abuja and Lagos. His young family had relocated to the United States and were only visiting Nigeria to attend a wedding.
“Sisters, Josephine and Jennifer Oniita were also just visiting Nigeria for a friend’s wedding. Both girls grew up in Texas attending the Redeemed Christian Church of God, Jesus House where their parents were the founding members. Theirs was a life dedicated to God’s work. Their parents and two siblings can take solace in the fact that their work here on earth is surely now being rewarded in heaven.
“Rajulie and Ugabio Oyosoro were aged 15 and 12 respectively and were two siblings of exceptional promise. Such was their academic prowess that the school they were attending in Lagos fought to retain their talents when their mother relocated to Abuja. They had just come back from a trip to visit her when disaster struck. Mrs. Oyowosoro we share in your pain and sorrow.
“Sergeant Adejilola Abraham joined the Nigerian Air Force immediately after he completed his schooling. He was known as a courageous soldier and a doting father. He was returning to work after attending the christening ceremony of his second child.
“Anjola Fatokun was a high flying lawyer who had recently been transferred to Abuja by the communications firm she worked for. She had been married for four years and is survived by her husband and two children.
“Alvana Ojukwu, was another lawyer of immense promise. She had been admitted to further her education at Oxford University in September last year. A devout Christian, Alvana was able to send out a text to her brother which read thus:
'TAKE STRENGTH IN THE LORD. A FEW MINUTES FROM NOW I WILL BE GOING TO MEET THE LORD'
“Each of those we come to eulogise had their own unique story, their unique purpose in life that was cut short far too soon. As we remember the victims, we must deeply reach out to their survivors and salute their tenacity and courage.
“I remember Dr. Ayene. He had the biggest personal loss. But in my meetings with the bereaved relatives, he showed a courage and strength that I have never experienced. He seemingly forgot about his own personal loss and joined me in consoling and calming others as if his own loss did not matter.
“I remembered Chizoba Majekwe, the head of HR in CBN who had come to the meeting because she was herself bereaved and her colleagues in the Bank were also victims. She told the story of how she herself lost her mother in a horrific road crash in which everybody was burnt beyond recognition.
“She helped in giving strength to bereaved relatives as they gave us their authority to undergo a long process of victim identification that was later to prove definitive in the positive identification of 148 bodies, that were subsequently released to their families for burial.
“I remember all our first responders from LASEMA, Lagos Fire Service, the Police, FEMA, Ministry of Health, our Chief Pathologist, and Vice Chancellor of LASU, Prof. Obafunwa and his colleagues from other Universities who performed all the autopsies. To you all I say thank you.”
He commended religious leaders, who rose to join government efforts in consoling the bereaved. He also thanked the minister for aviation, members of the National Assembly, President Goodluck Jonathan and Nigerians for their support throughout the period.
“To all family members who lost loved ones, we promised a year ago that we would fittingly honour all of them and today we move one small step closer towards immortalising their memories.
“In as much as it is a tragedy that brings us together here, the real tragedy to befall us would be to forget what happened. We must never forget. We can never forget. This cenotaph which we are unveiling here today will ensure that their memories never die.
“This monument will stand as a permanent memorial to these family men, women and children; and we will cherish each of their stories - stories of potential and of fulfilment, stories of true heroes,” the governor said, adding that it will be more important for all who have authority and responsibility to act with a preventive purpose to ensure that such an incident does not happen.
He stated that the watchword for decision-making must always be safety and not profit, stressing that the government has learnt some painful lessons.
“We have now improved our response capacity, trained and continue to re-train our first responders, develop response protocols and acquired necessary equipment. We convened a Disaster and Emergency Management Summit for all the States in the South West, at which we shared our experience and information.
“The entire incident is properly documented for posterity, with copies in the Attorney General’s office and the Governor’s office, with details of what we did well and what we could have done better to avoid our past mistakes. God forbid it, if such a disaster should recur, we are much better prepared to respond. But it will not be enough to hope that this kind of disasters will not happen.”
Relations of the victims were present at the event. Mrs. Chizoba Majekwe said life has not remained the same since the incident happened. She said at the period, she did not know who to mourn between her sister and the eight staff of the CBN who died in the crash. She however commended the Lagos State Government for its efforts since the incident happened.
Some families of the victims also raised issues concerning compensation. They accused the airline of playing politics with the incident, saying those who have received benefits were not more that 10 percent of the victims.
Meanwhile, President Goodluck Jonathan has promised that his administration could continue working relentlessly to improve safety in the aviation sector to avoid recurrences of the Dana air crash.
“Let me reiterate our resolve to maintain maximum vigilance to safety regulations of our aviation industry,” Jonathan said while unveiling the cenotaph in memory of the victims of the air disaster at the Nnamdi Azikwe International Airport, Abuja
Bamanga Tukur to Be Buried Sunday in Yola
Former Governor of the old Gongola State and former National Chairman of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Alhaji Bamanga Tukur, will be buried in Yola, Adamawa State, on Sunday, September 13, 2026.
Tukur, a prominent elder statesman and businessman, died in Abuja on Saturday, according to a statement issued by his family.
His son, Awwal Tukur, the Secretary to the Adamawa State Government, announced the burial arrangements in a statement released in Yola on Saturday.
According to the statement, the remains of the deceased will be brought to Yola on Saturday ahead of the funeral.
The funeral prayers are scheduled to take place at the Lamido’s Palace in Yola at 10:00 a.m. on Sunday, after which the late politician will be laid to rest.
Tukur died just three days before his 91st birthday.
He was a prominent figure in Nigeria’s political and economic history, having served in several key public positions during a career spanning more than six decades.
Among other positions, he served as Chief Executive of the Nigerian Ports Authority (NPA), Governor of the former Gongola State and Minister of Industries. He also served as National Chairman of the PDP between 2012 and 2014.
Beyond Nigeria, Tukur played a role in promoting African economic development through organisations including the Africa Business Roundtable and the NEPAD Business Group.
The late elder statesman is survived by two wives and 18 children, including Awwal Tukur, the Secretary to the Adamawa State Government.
Northern Governors Mourn
The Northern Nigeria Governors’ Forum (NNGF) has expressed grief over the death of Tukur, describing his passing as a significant loss to the North and Nigeria as a whole.
In a condolence message issued on behalf of the forum, its Chairman and Governor of Gombe State, Muhammadu Inuwa Yahaya, described Tukur as an experienced public servant, political leader and advocate of economic development.
Yahaya said Tukur’s contributions to public administration, politics and business had left a lasting mark on the country.
He highlighted the deceased’s extensive public service record, including his tenure at the Nigerian Ports Authority, his leadership of the old Gongola State and his service as Minister of Industries.
The NNGF chairman also recognised Tukur’s involvement in continental economic initiatives and his leadership of the PDP between 2012 and 2014.
“Alhaji Bamanga Tukur lived a long and impactful life, serving Nigeria in several critical capacities and contributing significantly to the growth of our economy, institutions and political development,” Yahaya said.
He added that Tukur’s experience, wisdom and dedication to public service would be greatly missed.
Yahaya extended his condolences to the Adamawa State Government, the Tukur family, friends and associates of the deceased.
He prayed that Allah would forgive Tukur’s shortcomings, reward his contributions to humanity and grant him Aljannatul Firdaus.
News
Where & How to Buy Dangote Refinery IPO Shares
The Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals FZE is set to offer shares to the Nigerian public, giving individuals an opportunity to become shareholders in one of Africa’s largest refineries.
The public offer is expected to open on Monday, September 14, 2026, and close on October 13, 2026, subject to the final offer documents.
The offer comprises 4.1 billion ordinary shares at ₦525 per share, with a minimum subscription of 10 shares, costing ₦5,250.
Who Can Buy Dangote Refinery Shares?
The IPO is designed to give ordinary Nigerians an opportunity to invest in the refinery. Investors can subscribe through approved banks, fintech platforms, mobile operators, and NGX Invest.
However, investors should only use channels officially approved for the offer and should avoid sending money to individuals, agents, or platforms that are not listed in the official offer documents.
Approved Channels for the Dangote Refinery IPO
Banks
Access Bank
Ecobank
FCMB
Fidelity Bank
FirstBank
Globus Bank
GTCO
Jaiz Bank
Keystone Bank
Lotus Bank
PremiumTrust Bank
Providus Bank
Stanbic IBTC
Sterling Bank
TAJ Bank
UBA
Union Bank
Wema Bank
Zenith Bank
Fintech Platforms
Bamboo
Flutterwave
InvestNaija
Ladder
Moniepoint
Paga
Payaza
PiggyVest
Vetiva Invest
we.yan
Mobile Operators
Airtel SmartCash
MTN MoMo
Nigerian Exchange
NGX Invest
How to Buy Dangote Refinery IPO Shares
Step 1: Choose an Approved Platform
Select one of the banks, fintech platforms, mobile operators, or investment platforms officially approved to process subscriptions.
If you already use one of the approved platforms, check whether the IPO application option is available through your existing account.
Step 2: Open or Activate Your Investment Account
Investors generally need an investment or brokerage account to participate in the offer.
Depending on the platform, you may be required to provide identification, your BVN and other Know-Your-Customer information.
Step 3: Set Up Your CSCS Details
Shares listed on the Nigerian Exchange are held electronically through the Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS).
Your broker or participating investment platform should guide you through the process of opening or linking the necessary CSCS account.
Step 4: Fund Your Account
At ₦525 per share, the minimum subscription is:
10 shares × ₦525 = ₦5,250
If you want to purchase more shares, calculate the total amount based on the number of shares you intend to request and check the final prospectus for the applicable subscription rules and fees.
Step 5: Apply When the Offer Opens
The public offer is expected to open on September 14, 2026.
Log into your approved platform, select the Dangote Refinery public offer, enter the number of shares you want to subscribe for, review your information and submit your application.
Step 6: Keep Your Confirmation
After submitting your application, keep your application reference, receipt or confirmation for your records.
Step 7: Wait for Allotment
Applying for shares does not necessarily mean you will receive every share requested.
If the offer is oversubscribed, investors could receive fewer shares than they applied for. Any applicable excess funds should be handled according to the terms of the final offer documents.
Step 8: Monitor Your Shares After Listing
Once the shares are listed on the Nigerian Exchange, successful investors can monitor their holdings through their broker or investment platform.
The market price may rise or fall after listing, depending on the company’s performance, investor demand, market conditions and other factors.
Important Warning for Investors
Do not pay anyone personally to “secure” Dangote Refinery shares for you.
Before sending money or providing your financial information, verify that the platform you are using appears on the official approved list and that the application process matches the final prospectus and offer documents.
Investors should also review the official prospectus carefully, particularly the offer terms, fees, allotment rules, deadlines and risk factors.
Investment involves risk. The fact that an IPO is associated with a well-known company does not guarantee that the share price will rise after listing.
Business
In The Spotlight
Editorial: PFIPC: The Scandal Is Bigger Than Gbajabiamila (2)
The first question was: Who created PFIPC? Now Nigeria must ask a more frightening one:Who allowed it to look real? That is the question the Presidential Foreign Intervention Promotion Council scandal can no longer escape.
The controversy has already produced denials, accusations, official disclaimers, investigations and criminal proceedings. The Presidency has maintained that PFIPC was fictitious and that its alleged promoter, Prince Adeniyi Adeyemi Matthew, was falsely presenting himself as a government appointee. The Office of the Chief of Staff says it alerted security agencies as far back as October 2025 over alleged forged appointment letters.
Fine.Let the courts determine the criminal allegations.Let investigators establish who forged what, who authorised what and who benefited from what. But there is now another problem that cannot be dismissed as the work of one alleged impostor. The paper trail.
Because this story became truly explosive when reports emerged that the name PFIPC, alongside the Presidential Economic Advisory Council, appeared in the 2026 federal budget with an allocation of about ₦1.3 billion. Other reports also said the Office of the Head of the Civil Service of the Federation had approved recruitment for hundreds of positions linked to the council.
If those records are authentic, then Nigerians are entitled to ask a brutally simple question:
How does a supposedly non-existent organisation get into government paperwork? That question is bigger than Gbajabiamila. Much bigger.And it is precisely why this matter must not become a convenient contest between political camps.
The easiest thing to do now is to make this a story about whether the Chief of Staff was framed, whether he was wrongly accused, or whether his denials should be believed.
Those questions matter. But they are not enough. Because even if Gbajabiamila is completely cleared, the country will still be left staring at the same institutional wreckage.Somebody, somewhere, appears to have been able to give a questionable entity the appearance of government legitimacy.That is not a small administrative mistake.That is a security problem.
It is a governance problem. It is a financial-control problem.And, potentially, it is a national credibility problem. Think about the implications. An organisation carrying the word “Presidential” can sound powerful enough to impress businessmen, foreign investors, civil servants and even government officials.
A letter carrying the right government language can appear authentic.A title can sound official. An office address can create confidence. A meeting can create legitimacy.A photograph can create legitimacy. A budget line can create legitimacy.
And once enough of these pieces come together, fiction can begin to acquire the appearance of fact.That is the frightening part.The Nigerian state cannot afford to be protected by appearances. It must be protected by verification.
If PFIPC was indeed fabricated, then the sophistication of the alleged deception deserves serious attention. The Presidency itself said the alleged organisation had been presented as a government agency and that purported appointment letters carried falsified signatures, reference numbers and seals.That is not merely somebody printing a fake business card.That is an alleged attempt to manufacture the appearance of state authority. And the state must answer accordingly.
Who checked the documents? Who checked the appointment? Who checked the organisation's legal foundation? Who checked its place in the public service structure? Who checked its bank accounts?Who checked its office?Who checked its recruitment?Who checked its budgetary status?Who checked the officials supposedly running it?And, above all:Who had the power to stop it?Those are not partisan questions.They are state questions.
They belong to every Nigerian.This is why the PFIPC affair should now be treated as an institutional stress test. The result is uncomfortable.
The Nigerian government has demonstrated that it can publicly declare an organisation non-existent while questions simultaneously arise over how that same name appeared in official-looking government records.
Whatever the eventual explanation, that contradiction demands daylight.Not spin.Not political warfare.Not another round of accusations on television.Daylight.
If the budget entry was an administrative error, explain it.If it was inserted improperly, explain how.If recruitment approval was improperly obtained, explain who authorised it.If documents were forged, prosecute those responsible after due process.
If legitimate government officials were deceived, identify where the verification system failed.If insiders assisted the operation, expose them.And if no government insider was involved at all, then demonstrate clearly how outsiders were able to penetrate the machinery of government so deeply.
Nigeria deserves that answer.Because there is a dangerous habit in public life: once a scandal becomes embarrassing, the instinct is to find one person to carry it away.
Blame the impostor.Blame the politician.Blame the civil servant.Blame the opposition.Blame the media.Then move on.
That will not do this time.A country does not become safer because one alleged fraudster is prosecuted.It becomes safer when the system that made the fraud possible is repaired.That is the real test.
The PFIPC controversy has exposed a vulnerability that cannot be buried beneath another headline.
Government authority is an asset.It must be guarded.
The presidential name is an asset.It must be protected.Official documents are an asset.They must be secured.
The national budget is an asset.It must be beyond manipulation.And public confidence is perhaps the most valuable asset of all.
Once Nigerians begin to wonder whether an organisation can be invented, dressed in presidential language and somehow find its way into official channels, the damage extends beyond the immediate scandal.It reaches the credibility of the state.It reaches Nigeria's relationship with investors. It reaches the credibility of official correspondence.It reaches the confidence of foreign missions.It reaches the reputation of the civil service.And it reaches the fundamental question of whether government records mean what they say they mean.
That is why the authorities must resist the temptation to declare victory simply because an individual has been accused, investigated or prosecuted.
The deeper victory would be institutional.Find the loophole.Close it.Find the accomplices, if any.Expose them.Find the forged documents.Trace them. Find the money.Follow it. Find the approvals.Explain them.
Find the officials who failed in their duties.Hold them accountable, where evidence and due process establish responsibility.And then build a system in which the next PFIPC cannot happen.
Because there will always be fraudsters.There will always be con artists.There will always be people willing to manufacture influence. The real question is whether the Nigerian state makes their work easy.That is what Abuja must answer.
And this is where the story moves beyond Femi Gbajabiamila.If he is innocent of the allegations against him, then say so and let the evidence stand.But do not confuse the clearing of one man with the clearing of the system.One man can be innocent while a system is still guilty of negligence.That distinction matters.
Nigeria does not need another political scapegoat.It needs an audit of its gates.Who enters?Who leaves?Who signs?Who approves?Who verifies?Who pays?Who watches?And who answers when nobody watches?Those questions are now unavoidable.
The PFIPC scandal began as a dispute over an alleged organisation.It has become a test of something much larger:whether the Nigerian state can recognise itself when someone tries to impersonate it.That is not a scandal about one man.It is not even a scandal about one organisation.It is a warning about the machinery of government itself.And warnings ignored have a way of returning as disasters.
So let the investigation continue.Let the courts do their work.Let evidence—not political loyalty—determine responsibility.
But let nobody close this file merely because one powerful name has been cleared.The name may be cleared.The questions are not.
And until Nigerians know how an allegedly non-existent presidential body could acquire the appearance, paperwork and institutional oxygen of legitimacy, the PFIPC scandal remains unfinished. The mask may have been exposed. Now Nigeria must find out who opened the door.
In The Spotlight
Rethinking Policy From The Ground (II)
Last week, this column began with a simple proposition: Nigeria’s public policy conversation is often conducted at the wrong altitude. We examined why citizens encounter the state most directly through schools, primary health centres, rural roads, markets, transport systems, environmental services and local government offices. We also argued that a policy problem must first be understood before it is solved. Today, the column continues that argument. If knowing the problem is the beginning, the next question is what happens when a carefully diagnosed problem enters the political and administrative machinery of government. This is where incentives, institutions, competing values and frontline discretion determine whether a promising policy becomes a public good or another abandoned initiative.
From Problems Towards Choices
A government rarely chooses between a good option and a bad option. It usually chooses among imperfect alternatives, each benefiting some citizens, imposing costs on others and carrying uncertainties.
That reality should make policy analysis more rigorous. William K. Bellinger’s work on economics for policy analysis provides a useful discipline: the relevant question is not simply whether government can afford an intervention, but whether its social benefits justify the resources sacrificed elsewhere. Every new road competes with a school. Every government factory competes with health spending. For state policymakers, the essential question is therefore: what else could this money achieve? A N10 billion expenditure should be evaluated against the outcomes forgone by not spending that money elsewhere. That is the difference between accounting for expenditure and analysing public value.
How Incentives Change Behaviour
This reasoning becomes sharper when we consider how citizens respond to government decisions. Lee S. Friedman’s microeconomic approach to policy reminds us that people respond to prices, rules, risks, information and incentives.
Consider local taxation. A local government that increases market levies may expect higher revenue. But if the burden becomes excessive, traders may relocate, evade payment or operate outside formal markets. The government may collect less while economic activity becomes harder to monitor. Similarly, multiple charges on farmers, transporters or small manufacturers can make formal activity less attractive.
The same logic applies to environmental regulation. If government prohibits indiscriminate dumping without providing affordable waste collection, households may continue dumping illegally because the lawful alternative is inaccessible. Enforcement alone cannot solve an incentive problem created partly by inadequate service provision. Good regulation combines rules with feasible alternatives. The objective should be to make desirable behaviour easier, not merely punish undesirable behaviour.
Why Politics Shapes Outcomes
But incentives alone do not explain policy outcomes. Deborah Stone’s work on policy paradox reminds us that public decisions are contests over values as much as calculations of efficiency. Nigerian policymakers operate where questions of distribution are inseparable from development. Who gets the road? Which community receives the hospital? Whose land is acquired? Which informal operators are displaced?
These are political questions with technical dimensions. A policy that is economically efficient may still fail if it is perceived as unfair. A reform that improves aggregate welfare may provoke resistance from groups bearing concentrated losses. Politically intelligent policy design must therefore anticipate winners, losers and the narratives through which both interpret reform.
Urban transportation illustrates the point. Formalising informal transport can improve safety and service standards, but simply removing existing operators can create hardship for drivers and passengers. Successful reform recognises the economic lives embedded in existing arrangements and provides credible transition pathways.
Institutions Carry Policy Forward
Michael Howlett, M. Ramesh and Anthony Perl of the Singapore’s Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy remind us that policy is not a single decision, but a process involving agenda setting, formulation, adoption, implementation and evaluation. A brilliant policy document can therefore become a poor programme because institutions lack coordination, information, authority or capacity.
Nigeria’s federal structure makes this especially difficult. Responsibilities are distributed across federal, state and local institutions, while financing and administrative capacity are uneven. A primary school may depend on one level for teachers, another for infrastructure and another for complementary interventions. A primary health centre may receive medicines through one channel, personnel through another and capital investment through a third. When outcomes are poor, each institution can point elsewhere.
The answer is not simply to redraw constitutional boundaries. For policymakers, this means resisting the temptation to treat political urgency as evidence. Urgency can justify action, but it cannot substitute for diagnosis, comparison, measurement and institutional realism and learning. It is to make responsibility visible. Citizens should know which institution is responsible for which service, what standard it must meet and where complaints should go.
Frontline Officials Make Policy
Perhaps nowhere is this more important than where policy meets the citizen. Research on street-level bureaucracy shows that frontline officials possess discretion because formal rules cannot anticipate every circumstance. Teachers decide how struggling pupils are treated. Nurses prioritise patients. Extension workers decide which farmers receive information. Environmental officers determine which violations receive attention.
Where incentives are weak and supervision poor, discretion can become rent extraction. But discretion can also enable adaptation. A teacher may develop a practical method for reaching struggling pupils. A health worker may reorganise patient flow to reduce waiting. A local official may find a simpler way to process applications. The challenge is therefore not to eliminate discretion, which is impossible, but to create conditions under which it serves public purposes.
States should pay closer attention to the working environment of frontline officials. If a policy assumes that an extension agent will visit remote farms without transport, or that a teacher will improve learning without materials, or that a health worker will provide reliable services without medicines, the policy is not ambitious. It is institutionally unrealistic.
Governments Must Learn Systematically
Nigeria has no shortage of programmes, strategies and reforms. What it lacks is a sufficiently systematic process for deciding which interventions deserve to survive. Governments often scale programmes because they are politically attractive, not because they have demonstrated results. Others abandon useful initiatives when administrations change. This produces institutional amnesia, with each government behaving as though it is starting from zero.
States should identify what they believe will happen, establish measurable indicators, test interventions, compare results and revise assumptions. Local governments should become sources of operational knowledge rather than administrative endpoints. Successful innovations should be documented and adapted before scaling. Failures should be examined rather than concealed.
A state may discover that feeder roads produce larger gains in farm incomes than subsidised inputs in one agricultural zone, while another finds that irrigation, storage or market aggregation is the binding constraint. The goal should be a common commitment to evidence, with flexibility for different solutions.
Good public policy requires more than money, political will or impressive documents. It requires an accurate understanding of reality, careful choices among alternatives, attention to incentives, sensitivity to political values, institutions capable of implementation and systems that learn from results. States and local governments are where these conditions either converge or collapse.
Next week, the conclusion of this three-part series will move from diagnosis to action. The final column will set out practical policy recommendations and ways forward for state and local government policymakers, focusing on education, primary healthcare, rural livelihoods, rural industrialisation, transportation, and ease of doing business among several others.
By Abdulrauf Aliyu


