Irked by alleged dictatorial tendencies of President Goodluck Jonathan, Hundreds of diaspora Nigerians, resident in London, today, picketed 10 Downing Street, where they presented a copy of their petition to the British Prime Minister.
The Petition, titled UNSUSTAINABLE LEVEL OF ORCHESTRATED POLITICAL TENSIONS IN NIGERIA and signed by Daniel Timi Kurobo,reads,
"Nigeria burns and a conflagration will have severe consequences internationally if not immediately stopped. As a matter of fact, democracy in Nigeria is slowly but surely inching closer to an early grave. Nigeria is close to the precipice –suggesting the possibility of another military coup which we do not want. But it may shock you to know that Nigerians in their teeming numbers are already canvassing for this as the only antidote to a budding civilian dictatorship. This is more of a grave concern as you could imagine.
Distinguished Prime minister, Sir, we are by this significant protest today right at your official premises and in the act of the presentation of our petition seeking your immediate intervention in Nigeria before it is too late and intractable to do so. Your timely intervention through a fact-finding mission to Nigeria is of utmost concern considering the grave implication the crisis in Nigeria could have on the international community, particularly Britain. Our fears arise from the dangerous use of federal might by the President Goodluck Jonathan-led administration to undermine democratic structures in Rivers State. Plans are also at advanced stage to expand this political subterfuge to other states in the federation as Nigeria approaches the 2015 general elections. The next is Niger State and followed by Lagos and Jigawa States. The existing state of emergency in Yobe, Borno and Adamawa States is also part of the scheme.
To underscore this concern, Nobel Laureate, Professor Wole Soyinka's (All Newspapers in Nigeria, May 6, 2013) recent comment on the development was quite significant. Soyinka in reaction to the series of events in South-South Nigeria's Rivers State had warned that the situation had reached an unsustainable level as tension reigned in Port Harcourt. In the statement, entitled: “Cool it, President Goodluck Jonathan,” the Nobel Laureate had urged the President to break the culture of federal executive impunity in Rivers State:
“The increasing flash points in the nation have reached an unsustainable level, and responsible governance must accept that it is an urgent duty to diminish, not increase them. Even the notoriously short Nigerian memory remains traumatised by recollection of the rape of Anambra [State] that was enabled by the connivance of federal might, and the abandonment of all moral scruples in executive disposition. The people of Ogun State were humiliated by the antics of a power besotted governor, with their elected legislators locked out of the National Assembly for upwards of a year. That hideous travesty was again made possible by the abusive use of the police. Even a child in this nation knows that the police derive its enabling and operational authority from the dictates of the centre, so there can be no disguising whose will is being executed wherever democratic norms are flouted and the people’s rights ground to mush under dictatorial heels. Before the irretrievable point of escalation is reached, we have a duty to sound a collective alarm, even without the lessons of past violations of constitutional rights and apportionments of elected representatives of the people, and their consequences.
“There is an opportunity in Rivers State to break this spiraling culture of [Federal]executive impunity – manifested in both subtle and crude ways – that is fast becoming the norm in a post-military dispensation that fitfully aspires to be called a democracy.
Soyinka also warned that mounting impunity is sliding the country in the direction of danger, calling for a halt before matters get out of hand. He also identified three institutions responsible for what he termed “this gathering dark cloud” as federal might, the Executive, and the police. This was the second time in three months that the Nobel laureate will be sounding warning of a progression to a state of impunity in the county. He concluded by saying that for democracy in Nigeria to survive, then, “the Jonathan administration should look in the direction of the current escalation in federally inspired attack in Rivers State to calm the nerves of the police.”
In spite of Soyinka’s warning the Federal Government of Nigeria to date still maintains this seeming abuse of office and continues to the democratic structures in Rivers State. The Commissioner of Police of Rivers State, Mr. Mbu Joseph Mbu is directly being instigated by President Goodluck Ebele Jonathan and the Inspector General of the Police (IGP) Mohammed Abubakar; and should be held accountable for any breakdown of law and order.
The above is premised on the following facts:-
1.On April 22, 2013 Rivers State House of Assembly suspended Obio/Akpor Local Government Council Chairman and other council members based on a petition bordering on allegations of financial impropriety and other fraud related allegations.
2.On April 23, 2013, a Caretaker Committee led by Mr. Chikodi Dike was constituted and sworn in.
3.On May 2, 2013, First Lady of Nigeria, Dame Patience Jonathan stops over at Port Harcourt International Airport, enroute to Bayela State. At the airport, the First Lady encountered Mr. Dike and addressed him publicly as illegal Chairman of Obio/Akpor. Then she turned to the State Director of SSS and summoned him to a meeting in Yanagoa, Bayelsa State.
4.On May 3, 2013, the Commissioner of Police, Rivers state; MR MBU JOSEPH MBU ordered the invasion, sealing-off, and besieging of Obio/Akpor Local Government Council Secretariat, without any valid instrument of law or justification, preventing the carrying on of legitimate businesses of the council. The Commissioner of Police actually sealed Obio/Akpor Council Secretariat with Mobile Police Officers and Armored Personnel Carriers, (APCs) claiming bomb scam and said it was based on the orders of IGP.
5.On May 5, 2013, more than Three hundred (300) hoodlums and gun brandishing gangsters were allowed into the Rivers state House of Assembly (Legislature) premises chanting war songs. The Assembly complex which is directly adjacent to the Police Headquarters in Moscow Road was not provided with any form of protection. The Divisional Officer (D/O) of the Assembly Police Station had disclosed that he was ordered by the Police Commissioner, MBU JOSEPH MBU to allow the hoodlums and gangsters access into the complex. This is also in the face of an earlier ordered withdrawal of security operatives deployed to protect the Assembly Complex on “orders from above” by the said Commissioner of Police. The Assembly Complex is currently sealed-off and under siege. The scenario also played out at the Obio/Akpor Council secretariat, Rumuodumaya on same day. At the moment, 27 members of the House and their families are under constant intimidation, threats of arrest and assassination by persons believed to have the tacit support of the Commissioner of Police, Rivers state. This development has made it practically impossible to carry out constitutional responsibilities
6On May 4, 2013, Commissioner of Police and other Rivers State Security Chiefs in charge of Army, Navy, Airforce and the Director of the State Security Services (SSS) met with the First Lady in Yenagoa, Bayelsa. This remains a constitutional breach and a provocative act of tyranny which ordinarily ought to have caused an immediate investigation by the National Assembly (NASS).This constitutional breach should be a weighty concern to the international community given that the First Lady can unilaterally enflame war against another country while the President is asleep. This development has caused restiveness in the Nigerian military and the implication cannot be ascertained now.
The orchestrated political tension as inspired by the President, wife and his officials is an unfortunate development for Nigeria’s desperate search for a political order based on democracy. Almost simultaneously, an Abuja high court (that clearly has no jurisdiction to hear a matter of such nature) gave a politically toxic and legally dubious verdict, ceding control of the ruling PDP in Rivers State to an anti-Amaechi party executive. This was done to instigate violence in Rivers State, thus introducing a dangerous dimension to the crisis in Nigeria – the Jonathan-led administration intimidates and has successfully coaxed the judiciary to submission. Now, the administration now writes legal decisions for judges. In a choreographed series of consequent manoeuvres inspired by the President and his officials, the new PDP executive in the state has quickly issued a series of directives to both factional party faithful and even the elected government of the state. The undisguised aim is to antagonise the sitting governor of the state and create an atmosphere of confusion.
In tow, the Nigeria police command in the state has acted in an obvious partisan routine that leaves no other assumption than that it is out to protect the anti-Amaechi forces. It has taken over the premises of a duly constituted local government and overrun the premises of the State House of Assembly. As if that is not enough, the police have also withdrawn police security from a sitting local government chairman and other officials for daring to openly express support for the Governor – thus leaving them vulnerable to attacks.
This disturbing development has further strengthened the arguments of those who have canvassed for the establishment of State Police in each state of the federation. Now, with the development in Rivers state, evidence on the ground suggests that no fewer than 21 states have resolved to go ahead with the establishment of state Police irrespective of concerns on the modalities for recruitment.
These developments in Rivers state came in the immediate aftermath of a series of Abuja meetings between the president and a selection of governors in a bid to convince them to avoid re-electing Governor Amaechi who sought and convincingly won a second term as Chairman of the Nigerian Governors Forum. The failure of the President’s candidate for this same election has upped the ante, resulting to the President breaking the group into two factions.
All these have been intended to provoke Governor’s camp into violence in Rivers State even though the governor has decided to pursue his case through legal process. The Governor has notably advised all his supporters and aides not to engage in any form of violence, no matter the provocation. When some thugs imported from neighbouring states and ex-militants almost overran the Government House in Port Harcourt on May 16, 2013, the governor told security men not to fire a shot. To avoid mayhem, the governor left the Government House. Amaechi’s position is that democracy can only thrive where the rule of law is allowed to take its normal course. The introduction of the ex-militants into the crisis was to prevent the Governor from traveling Governors Forum election.
When a president of a federation recruits ex-militants and terrorists to fight his political battles, he is not only setting a dangerous precedent, he is also showing how he has unknowingly rubbished the significance of the most exalted office in the land. Mr. Prime Minister, you may wish to imagine what the perception of the good people of Britain would be if you employ the masterminds of that dastardly and condemnable Woolwich killings as your political thugs in the next elections. In Nigeria, it is regrettable that is the only practical credential needed by the federal authorities to employ them as thugs in the next elections. This explains why it is feared that the unnecessary prolongation of the Boko Haram crisis is deliberate design for the 2015 elections.
Taken together, these events and actions indicate clearly that the democracy travails in Rivers State are coming directly from the presidency in Abuja. The footprints are all too familiar: presidential political displeasure with a governor followed by the unleashing of the instruments of the federal state to intimidate and harass the offending governor; EFCC, spurious allegations of wrongdoing, the use of the security apparatus to partisan ends, the recruitment of political jobbers and miscreants to create confusion and compromising the judiciary to obtain court judgments that will justify a forcible takeover of the administration of the state through the declaration of a state of emergency. This seems to be the path that the Jonathan forces are striding on the matter of Rivers State.
Beyond this repugnant show of Abuja might, however, the Rivers State situation has implications that go far beyond the immediate egos and personalities in the conflict. Unless it is checked now and effectively too, a number of tragic consequences await Nigeria and the international community. Party elders in the state have expressed their displeasure at the turn of events. Labour has sounded a note of warning. Students and youth of the state and the nation have indicated that they will defend Amaechi. The ordinary people of Rivers State are unhappy that their recent developmental gains may be lost if anything untoward happens to Amaechi. A critical majority of governors of both the PDP and the opposition parties have weighed in on Amaechi’s side. An otherwise localised development looks set to aggravate tensions in a nation already beset by numerous national security threats.
In a multi-pronged tactical battle against the Rivers governor, the Presidency began releasing a torrent of accusations against Amaechi:
of using the NGF to challenge Jonathan’s authority.
On realising that the above accusation may be too tenuous to justify, since he was only a spokesman of the NGF, then the next accusation became that Amaechi was having the ambition to contest the presidential election as a running mate to either Jigawa Governor Sule Lamido or Niger Governor Babangida Aliyu. None of the presidential handlers had mentioned when mere ambition has become a sin in a democracy.
Amaechi has been brazenly tagged a traitor to Jonathan’s second term undeclared ambition, and therefore a traitor to Niger Delta interests. This was reinforced so profoundly by Nigeria’s ex Niger Delta militant leader, Asari Dokubo. These attacks are ultimately aimed at achieving one objective - prevent him from having a hand in who become the governor of Rivers state and the president of the federation in 2015. Mr. Prime Minister, it may interest you to note that other militants in the league of Asari Dokubo have also threatened to go to war if the president loses the 2015 elections. To this, the northern youth have also dared them to commence the war now because they would not vote for the president. Thus, you could imagine that war already looms in Nigeria long before the 2015 elections.
These assaults are likely to mortally injure Nigeria’s quest for a viable democratic culture. If the crime of the governor is that he is opposed to the president on a number of national issues, then there is the need to review our understanding of democracy. The freedom to canvass opposing views is integral to any healthy democratic culture. Even the fact of belonging to the same party does not deprive individual partisan leaders of the right to disagree on policies and issues. In the best of democratic traditions, most large political parties contain various strands and tendencies. We see the emergence of radicals like Rotimi Amaechi in the PDP as a healthy development if the party were to reform itself and align with the currents in the larger polity. The rise of a progressive arm of the PDP would be the best guarantee that the party will not be swept out of power by the oncoming gale of progressivism that is the driving force of the new opposition merger.
Even if the governor were to challenge President Jonathan in an open convention for the next presidential ticket of the PDP, it would enhance the democratic credentials of a party that makes such a contest possible. For instance, the current vice-president of South Africa is on record as having contested against President Jacob Zuma in the last presidential elections. In spite of that, they have worked together and the ANC is the stronger for it. Similarly, Hillary Clinton waged a vicious contest for the Democratic Party’s presidential ticket against Barack Obama but ended up being one of America’s best Secretaries of State in US history and easily Obama’s greatest political asset and ally.
Beside the above, there is the determined attempt by the federal administration in re-igniting the violent arm of the Odua People’s Congress (OPC) in order to replicate what Boko Haram has done in parts of North in South-West Nigeria. This is in the guise of employing the OPC militants to protect petroleum pipelines in the region and through the formation of the Unity Party of Nigeria. This is aimed at reducing the influence of the dominant political gladiators – the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) in the region. Your Excellency, if these undemocratic practices under the Jonathan-led administration persists and spreads and in addition to the Boko Haram insurgencies in Northern Nigeria, there is every possibility that more than Thirty Million Nigerians would be seeking asylum in Western nations, particularly in Britain.
Your Excellency is hereby invited to note that your prompt intervention hinged mainly on your democratic values and concerns for international conflicts, would be in the interest of all friends of Nigeria and chiefly for a nation perennially beset with problems of grave strategic implications. What we ask for is so minimal -:
the enthronement of genuine democracy in Nigeria;
dictatorship in Nigeria must be condemned by the international community
holding the despot in Abuja accountable for any breakdown of law and order in Nigeria;
the president must stop the provocative act of monopolising political ambitions;
The Jonathan-led administration must stop fraternising with militants and terrorists;
President Goodluck Jonathan should be encouraged to be a moderate, outward-looking, pluralistic and democratic; and
The president must prove he can lead and govern.
Accept the assurances of our high esteem."
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Petrol Hits ₦1,470: ADC Warns ‘Nigerians Are Choking’
Nigerians are being pushed deeper into economic hardship as petrol prices climb as high as ₦1,470 per litre, with the African Democratic Congress (ADC) warning that families and businesses are being driven to breaking point.
The opposition party accused President Bola Tinubu’s administration of piling fresh pressure on Nigerians already struggling with soaring living costs.
In a strongly worded statement signed by its National Publicity Secretary, Bolaji Abdullahi, the ADC said the rising petrol price was triggering a chain reaction across the economy.
“President Tinubu has turned the petrol pump into an instrument of punishment for everyday Nigerians,” the party declared.
According to the ADC, the impact is being felt far beyond filling stations, with higher fuel costs feeding into transportation, food, electricity, education and business expenses.
‘NO MORE HOLES LEFT’
The party also cited reports of private schools increasing fees by 30 to 40 per cent, arguing that most parents have not seen comparable increases in their incomes.
“Parents are not earning 40 per cent more,” the ADC said, pointing to the simultaneous rise in fuel, food, rent, transportation and education costs.
The party said school proprietors were also under pressure from higher electricity bills, taxes, fuel costs, rents and salaries.
But it warned that the combined burden was becoming unbearable for households.
“At ₦1,470 per litre, petrol is no longer simply a commodity. It is a Tinubu Tax,” the ADC said.
The party further claimed that some Nigerians are now skipping meals, withdrawing children from school, delaying medical treatment and shutting down businesses because of mounting costs.
“Under Tinubu and the APC, Nigerians have been tightening their belts. Now, there are no more holes left, and people have started to choke,” the party said.
‘REFORM IS NOT WORKING’
The ADC also attacked the government's economic reform programme, arguing that policies that increase hardship without corresponding improvements in household incomes cannot deliver meaningful relief.
“A reform that continuously makes the people poorer is not working,” the party declared.
It accused public officials of demanding sacrifices from ordinary Nigerians while allegedly maintaining extravagant lifestyles at public expense.
“When parents must choose between feeding their children and educating them, the government has failed spectacularly in its most basic responsibility,” the ADC said.
2027 BATTLE LINE DRAWN
With the 2027 presidential election approaching, the ADC sought to draw a clear contrast between Tinubu’s economic policies and the programme proposed by its presidential candidate, Atiku Abubakar.
The party reiterated Atiku’s proposal to restore fuel subsidy while supporting domestic fuel production, saying this would help reduce the cost of transportation, food and production.
“Economic reform must serve the people, not sacrifice them,” the ADC said.
The party also warned the ruling APC not to mistake Nigerians’ resilience for approval.
“Our resilience must not become an excuse for continued cruelty,” it said.
The ADC concluded with a direct appeal to the President:
“Tinubu has had enough time and inflicted enough pain. The people are suffering, businesses are dying, and hope is becoming increasingly expensive. President Tinubu must act now. Don’t push Nigerians to their limits.”
Banks Shut 476 Branches as Nigeria’s Banking Landscape Goes Digital
Nigeria’s banks are rapidly abandoning the traditional banking model, shutting down hundreds of branches and cash centres as customers increasingly move to digital and electronic channels.
Data from the Central Bank of Nigeria show that banks closed a net 476 branches and cash centres between 2022 and 2025, cutting the country’s physical banking network by 8.8 per cent in just three years.
The number of bank branches and cash centres plunged from 5,410 in 2022 to 4,934 in 2025, signalling a dramatic shift away from brick-and-mortar banking.
The contraction has gathered pace in recent years.
Banks closed 37 locations in 2023, followed by a much steeper reduction of 229 locations in 2024. Another 210 branches and cash centres disappeared in 2025.
In effect, more than nine out of every 10 locations lost during the three-year period were closed in 2024 and 2025.
The figures, contained in the CBN’s 2025 Statistical Bulletin for the Financial Sector, cover branches and cash centres operated by commercial, merchant and non-interest banks. The data were sourced from the CBN and the Nigeria Deposit Insurance Corporation.
Lagos bears the biggest hit Lagos, Nigeria’s financial powerhouse, recorded the largest decline.
The state had 1,602 bank branches and cash centres in 2022. That figure dropped to 1,532 in 2023, 1,521 in 2024 and just 1,444 in 2025.
That represents a loss of 158 locations, or nearly 10 per cent, in three years.
Despite the closures, Lagos remains overwhelmingly dominant, accounting for almost 29 per cent of all physical banking locations in Nigeria.
The Federal Capital Territory also suffered a significant contraction. Abuja went from 400 locations in 2022 to 362 in 2025, a decline of 38, or 9.5 per cent.
But some states experienced far more dramatic cuts.
Ekiti lost almost half of its banking locations, falling from 107 in 2022 to just 57 in 2025 — a staggering 46.7 per cent decline.
Enugu lost 44 locations, dropping from 162 to 118, while Oyo shed 41, falling from 237 to 196.
Other notable declines were recorded in Ondo, Plateau, Osun, Cross River and Rivers.
Northern banking centres also feel the squeeze
The contraction was not confined to the South.
Kano, for instance, initially expanded its banking footprint, rising from 164 locations in 2022 to 183 in 2024. But the reversal was sharp in 2025, when the figure crashed to 157.
Kaduna followed a similar pattern. Its locations climbed from 148 in 2022 to 164 in 2024 before falling back to 146 in 2025.
Yet not every state is losing branches.
Delta recorded the strongest expansion among the states highlighted, adding 23 locations and rising from 173 in 2022 to 196 in 2025.
Edo added 10, while Jigawa and Kogi gained six and five locations respectively.
A widening banking divide
The figures expose a striking disparity in access to physical banking infrastructure across Nigeria.
While Lagos had 1,444 branches and cash centres in 2025, Yobe had only 23, Taraba 26 and Zamfara 28.
Bayelsa and Gombe had 31 each, while Ebonyi had 32.
The imbalance underscores how heavily physical banking infrastructure remains concentrated in Nigeria’s major commercial and economic centres.
The bank branch may be losing its battle
The shrinking branch network comes despite the number of banks operating in Nigeria initially increasing.
The country had 32 banks in 2022, 33 in 2023 and 35 in 2024, before the figure slipped slightly to 34 in 2025.
That means the branch closures cannot simply be explained by a shrinking number of banks.
Instead, the figures point to a much bigger transformation: Nigerian banking is moving away from physical locations and towards digital platforms.
The CBN has itself been pushing greater adoption of alternative payment channels, particularly among farmers, traders, small businesses and informal-sector operators who may have limited access to conventional banking services.
Speaking at the 2026 CBN Fair in Lokoja, the Acting Director of Corporate Communications and Investor Relations, Hakama Sidi-Ali, stressed the importance of alternative payment channels in expanding financial access and stimulating economic activity.
The message from the numbers is even clearer.
The era of banking halls on every major street may be fading.
With hundreds of branches disappearing in just three years — and the pace of closures accelerating — Nigeria’s banking industry is betting increasingly on phones, apps, electronic payments and other digital channels rather than physical walls and counters.
For millions of Nigerians, the next bank branch may no longer be a building. It may be sitting in their hands.
Business
In The Spotlight
Editorial:The War Behind the War
Nigeria is building a bigger army. But if the reports of secret talks with Boko Haram are true, Abuja may be fighting a very different war behind closed doors.
Nigeria is preparing for war.Thirty thousand more soldiers. Four new Army divisions. More troops, more formations, more firepower. The message from Abuja is unmistakable: the insurgency will be crushed. But somewhere behind that declaration of war lies a far more uncomfortable possibility. What if Nigeria is also negotiating with the enemy?
That is the question raised by reports surrounding the release of roughly 360 civilians abducted in Borno State after the attack around Ngoshe. The government has not publicly acknowledged a secret ceasefire with Boko Haram. It has also denied allegations that ransom was paid. Those denials matter. So do the allegations.
Because if the reported arrangement is accurate, Nigeria's counterterrorism strategy may be entering a dangerous new phase—one in which the government fights insurgents in the open while talking to them in the shadows. And that is where the real danger begins.
The price of getting people home
For the families of the abducted, there is no grand strategy. There is only one question:Are they alive?
If negotiations helped bring hundreds of civilians home, families are unlikely to complain about the method. They wanted their husbands, wives, children and relatives back.That is the brutal arithmetic of hostage-taking. But governments cannot afford to think only about the hostage in front of them.They must also think about the hostage who may be taken tomorrow.
The allegation of a ₦5 billion payment, if ever substantiated, would therefore be explosive—not merely because of the money, but because of the precedent. If an armed group discovers that kidnapping civilians can produce cash, concessions or a pause inmilitary operations, kidnapping stops being merely a weapon.It becomes a business model. And Nigeria already has too many kidnappers.
The contradiction at the heart of Abuja's strategy
Here is the paradox. President Bola Tinubu is expanding the machinery of war at precisely the moment reports suggest that government-linked actors may have been talking to Boko Haram.
So which is it? War or negotiation? The uncomfortable answer may be: both. And perhaps that is not necessarily irrational.
Governments negotiate when lives are at stake. They gather intelligence through contacts. They explore defections. They communicate with enemies even while fighting them. Military pressure can strengthen a government's negotiating position. Negotiations can save lives while military operations continue elsewhere.
But there is a line between using talks as a tactical instrument and allowing negotiations to become a substitute for strategy.Nigeria must know where that line is.
The ceasefire question
A temporary halt in fighting sounds harmless until you ask what happens during the silence. Insurgents do not necessarily see a ceasefire as surrender. They can see it as breathing space. Time to move fighters.Time to acquire supplies.Time to recruit.Time to reorganise.Time to recover from military pressure.
In an insurgency, a few quiet months can be worth more than a few square kilometres of territory.
That is why the most important question surrounding the reported Ngoshe arrangement is not simply whether fighting stopped.
It is this:What did Boko Haram do while it stopped? If the group used the pause to regroup, then a humanitarian success may have carried a strategic cost.If it did not, then perhaps the negotiations achieved precisely what they were supposed to achieve. Nigeria deserves to know.
Who was talking?
This may be the biggest unanswered question of all. There is no established evidence that President Tinubu personally negotiated with Boko Haram. Claims of a secret presidential deal should therefore not be presented as fact.
But if government representatives did negotiate a truce, somebody authorised those contacts. Somebody decided that talking was preferable to shooting.
Somebody determined what could be offered—and what could not.That chain of authority matters.Because secrecy may sometimes protect an operation.
It should not become a permanent shield against accountability. The government does not need to publish intelligence that would endanger hostages or expose sources.
But Nigerians have a legitimate right to know whether their government has paid terrorists, granted concessions or entered into ceasefires.
The Army is getting bigger. The questions are getting bigger too.
Tinubu's decision to expand the Army reflects the scale of Nigeria's security crisis.Boko Haram and ISWAP remain threats in the northeast. Banditry and kidnapping continue elsewhere. The military is being asked to fight on multiple fronts across a vast country. Thirty thousand additional soldiers will not, by themselves, solve an insurgency that has survived nearly two decades.
More soldiers can provide manpower.They cannot automatically provide victory. And this is where Abuja must be careful.
A government cannot tell Nigerians that terrorism will be defeated while simultaneously allowing armed groups to believe that kidnapping can open the door to profitable negotiations.
That sends two messages at once. One says:We will fight you. The other whispers:But if you take enough civilians, we may talk. For an insurgent organisation, that distinction can be very profitable.
Boko Haram is not the only player
There is another complication. Even if Abuja could reach a workable understanding with Boko Haram, Nigeria's jihadist problem would not disappear. ISWAP remains a separate and formidable force.
The northeast is not a chessboard with two pieces. It is a shifting battlefield of factions, commanders, rivalries and opportunistic alliances.
An agreement with one group can change the balance with another. An insurgent who signs a ceasefire today may defect tomorrow. A faction that loses influence may become more violent.
There are no guarantees in this kind of war. The danger of teaching terrorists the wrong lesson.This is ultimately what Abuja must worry about. Not simply whether a ransom was paid. Not simply whether a ceasefire happened. But what lesson the entire episode teaches.
If the lesson is that civilians can be kidnapped, government officials can be summoned to negotiations, money can change hands and military pressure can be reduced, then Nigeria risks creating an incentive for more abductions.
The country cannot afford that. Nigeria's kidnapping economy is already too deeply entrenched. Every concession to an armed group carries the possibility of becoming an advertisement for the next one.
Perhaps the hardest truth is this.
After 17 years of insurgency, Nigeria may have to confront a reality that governments have repeatedly resisted:There may be no purely military solution. That does not mean surrender. It does not mean rewarding terrorists.It does not mean abandoning military pressure. It means recognising that insurgencies are political, social and economic conflicts as well as military ones.But if Nigeria chooses negotiation, it must negotiate from strength and with clear objectives.
If it chooses war, it must understand what victory actually means. And if it chooses both, Nigerians deserve to know what the rules are.The shadows cannot govern forever. The reported Ngoshe arrangement may ultimately prove to be something very different from the allegations now circulating.
The ₦5 billion claim remains unproven.The alleged ceasefire has not been publicly established by the Nigerian government.
Those distinctions matter. But unanswered questions matter too. Who negotiated? Who authorised it? Was money paid? What concessions were made? Did Boko Haram use the pause to rebuild? And most importantly, what is Abuja's endgame?
Nigeria cannot fight a 17-year war indefinitely while pretending that every problem can be solved by another battalion, another operation and another military communiqué. Nor can it negotiate in secret indefinitely and expect the public to remain in the dark.
President Tinubu is building a bigger Army.
That may be necessary. But a bigger Army is not the same thing as a clearer strategy. The real test is whether Nigeria can use military power, intelligence, diplomacy and negotiation without allowing any of them to become a reward for terrorism.
Because the most dangerous battlefield may no longer be the one where the guns are firing. It may be the one where, behind closed doors, the price of peace is being negotiated.
In The Spotlight
Mixed metaphors: Eating them young
On this page, I have praised former Minister Nasir el-Rufai for his work in the Federal Capital Territory.
As governor, I praised some of his work, including when he fired state teachers. I also criticised him when he became arrogant and presumptuous.
Powerful people tend to misjudge distance, in terms of how long they will remain powerful, as well as the depth of their relevance, measuring how power, once in the hands of others, can remain in their favour.
El-Rufai made both miscalculations. Following over two decades of untouchability in power from Olusegun Obasanjo to Muhammadu Buhari, he has now spent 200 days in pre-trial detention on ICPC and DSS charges.
This should not happen to a citizen, any citizen. But some citizens, when fate grants them the winning lottery ticket, become Cronus, the Titan in Greek mythology who, to maintain his power, swallowed five of his six children soon after birth.
But not Zeus, his youngest son, who miraculously survived and, becoming the supreme ruler of the Olympian gods and the “Father of Gods and Men, “would exact vengeance.
In power, el-Rufai forgot not only the principle of right and wrong, but also the concept of justice.
But it was right there the whole time: on the flip side of injustice. The truth is that wearing glasses to be able to see arms, nobody to see through clouds.
Last Tuesday’s disruption by political thugs of the visit to Benue State of Peter Obi, the presidential candidate of the Nigeria Democratic Congress, is an early reminder of the temptations of power in a Nigerian election year.
The ruling party controls the state, which is in the thick of Nigeria’s insecurity crisis. Its governor, Hyacinth Alia, is a Catholic priest. Having, in 2025, been involved in trying to prevent the same Obi from a humanitarian visit, claiming that his intervention was purely on security grounds, Mr Alia is trying to persuade the country that his are not the hands behind the crude attempt to stop, particularly Mr Obi, from travelling freely and safely in the state.
As Minister Festus Keyamo wisely said, this kind of menace is not a part of our democracy. Mr Alia, show the world your strengths, not your limitations.
Big news: the 2024 Auditor-General’s Non-Compliance report, published last month, identified over N1.34trn in audit lapses.
It found that the National Cash Transfer Office paid N33.751 billion to 3,295,207 households in 35 states in 2023 with no evidence that the money reached genuine beneficiaries.
The Office could not produce REMITA records to authenticate the payments. SERAP has written to President Tinubu demanding a published audit trail and investigation of the flagged N78.8bn in total irregularities.
Similarly, Femi Falana (SAN) has called on the EFCC to investigate and prosecute officials.
Given that we are dealing with a specific regime of governance coated in colours of ruthlessness, it is doubtful that these calls will yield anything.
The truth is that the situation is worse than what we know so far, and so, I have a different call: that Nigerians pay close attention to what is actually a long-running looting spree of our poorest and most vulnerable. There is a scorched-earth assault going on.
I begin in 2019, the start of the second term of the fake anti-corruption champion Muhammadu Buhari:
The Auditor-General’s 2019 report on the FGN Consolidated Financial Statements discovered that 36 MDAs made individual transfer payments,totalingN15,534,467,561.26, without identifying the beneficiaries, ignoring the relevant budget lines for “Transfers–Payment to Unemployed” and “Transfers–Payment to Aged/Vulnerable Group.” The Auditor-General flagged the risk of “diversion of public funds” and “misapplication of funds.”
The 2020 report is more curious. In the MDA-by-MDA budget-performance schedule, the National Social Investment Office shows: Approved Budget N0.00, Supplementary Budget N0.00, Total Budget N0.00, but the actual spending is N275,010,764,595.02! That is, the NSIO somehow recorded spending N275bn with no budgetary authorisation at all.
Surely, somebody has an explanation?
The 2021 Non-Compliance report, Volume II, found under the Ministry of Humanitarian Affairs that N54,630,000,000 in N-Power Batch C1 stipends (the August–December 2021 backlog) was recorded as paid but, per the Auditor-General’s own field visits, “was not actually effected to the beneficiaries.”
The same section found N2,617,090,786 paid for the National Home-Grown School Feeding Programme (COVID-19 period), the Auditor-General recommending full recovery to the Treasury: a combined N58.05bn flagged in that one ministry in that one year.
Surely, somebody has an explanation?
The 2022 Non-Compliance file is titled as Volumes I and II merged, but despite that filename, Volume II appears to be absent, as it excludes Humanitarian Affairs, NSIPA, NCTO or NASSCO, meaning that their work was either not audited at all, or that that specific audit has yet to be published.
Again, and similarly, despite examining the two volumes of the 2023 Non-Compliance report, neither the Ministry of Humanitarian Affairs, NSIPA, NCTO, NASSCO, N-Power, GEEP nor school feeding appears anywhere, although many other agencies were thoroughly audited.
Surely, somebody has an explanation?
That brings us to the 2024 itemised findings SERAP has publicized: N33.751bn in cash transfers with no beneficiary confirmation; N36.744bn paid in December 2023 without prepayment audit; N4.616bn in unsupported expenditure which the Auditor-General says “may have been diverted”; N350.18m in enrolment payments to state coordinators with no supporting documentation; N89.51m for store items never delivered or logged; N17.42m in diesel cash advances with no traceable purchases; and at NASSCO, N2.24bn paid through 158 vouchers without prepayment audit.
These appear to be the patterns that Nigerian MDAs exhibit in their work every year, with vulnerable Nigerians exploited every year.
But the first challenge is for journalists to track Humanitarian Affairs/NSIPA through every audit year to establish the full carnage.
There is another crisis: that despite all of this, a lot of MDAs still fail to submit audited accounts to the Auditor-General, representing one of Nigeria’s worst accountability challenges. This is a problem that worsened significantly under the Buhari administration despite his anti-corruption rhetoric. According to the Auditor-General, the 2016 audit year saw the highest number of non-submissions (324) in modern Nigerian history: more than double the previous 22-year high of 148. In 2016-2017 alone, 436 agencies failed to submit accounts. Think about that.
President Bola Tinubu is in the middle of a three-week foreign trip, departing without formally informing the National Assembly or handing over to Vice President Shettima, violating the constitution.
For a man who is seeking a second term of office, this is a stark reminder of how little the rules, or for that matter, Nigeria, really matter to Mr Tinubu. Keep in mind that when he headed north, Mr Shettima headed south, to Angola.
The general debate of the 81st United Nations General Assembly will begin on 22 September. Mr Tinubu is scheduled to speak the following morning.
At a time of chaos and doubt in his leadership, and in democracy under his watch, he will confront the theme: “Restoring trust, managing transformation: a United Nations that delivers for all.”
By Sonala Olumhense