The crisis rocking the ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) is far from over as the sacked National Secretary, Prince Olagunsoye Oyinlola, has appealed his destitution by the Federal High Court amid the intrigues and backdoor maneuvers with President Goodluck Jonathan battling former President Olusegun Obasanjo for the conscience of the party and the 2015 Presidential ticket.
These are certainly trying moments for President Jonathan and not the best of times for the PDP. While its leadership is still grappling with the crisis of confidence plaguing the party over the stalemate in the quest for a new Board of Trustees (BoT) Chairman and acceptable executive committee in Adamawa State, the Federal High Court in Abuja sacked its National Secretary, Prince Olagunsoye Oyinlola, from office providing the National Working Committee (NWC) with the badly needed pretext to replace him with his Deputy, Solomon Onwe, in an acting capacity.
The unfolding crisis is a litmus test for President Jonathan’s leadership as he has been called in to play expected and unexpected roles in the course of which his protégé; Dr. Bamanga Tukur has come under attack from PDP Governors who want him sacked as national chairman; his preferred candidate for the BoT chair, Chief Anthony Anenih has been totally rejected while Jonathan’s position as President and leader of the PDP is being called to question. The battle lines have been drawn and the stage set for a major political showdown as Jonathan has decided to take the battle to Obasanjo’s home turf - to seize control of the party in the South-West from Obasanjo. Since history is written by the victors, the outcome of this crisis will be one for the record books.
Genesis of the Crisis
It all began with a meeting of the 98-man body of the BoT to elect a chairman to replace Obasanjo who resigned last year. The signs were ominous when it became evident that for the first time, the BoT would pick its chairman through a contest. Second Republic Vice President and first BoT Chairman, Dr. Alex Ekwueme, and his successors, including Obasanjo, emerged through consensus; which was almost the norm, until the emergence of OBJ, which created some bad blood among party faithful.
Obasanjo, had in the twilight of his administration, failed to get the National Assembly to endorse his tenure elongation project. After that misadventure, Obasanjo, driven by the desire to still remain relevant after his presidential tenure, instigated an amendment to the PDP constitution to ease his emergence as BoT chairman. That was the joker that knocked out the then incumbent BoT chairman, Tony Anenih in 2007. On account of this, OBJ practically snatched the job from Anenih.
Following a protest by principal officers of the party in the National Assembly, the draconian provision was expunged from the PDP constitution. OBJ resigned in anger and frustration in April 2011 after holding the post for about four years with the excuse that his international engagements have become more demanding. Sources however tell Huhuonline.com that the late President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua introduced some radical changes in the conduct of affairs of the party that demystified and consigned the position of BoT chair to political irrelevance.
As a matter of fact, former Senate President Ken Nnamani who was one of those who spearheaded the campaign that led to the amendment of the PDP constitution in 2009 had cause to complain about the way things were done and his position was supported by the late Yar’Adua. A PDP National Executive Committee (NEC) meeting scheduled at noon at the headquarters in Abuja was delayed for over five hours because the “leader of the party” then President Yar’Adua was running late. Huhuonline.com learnt that when the meeting finally started, a furious Nnamani barred his mind, making it crystal clear to anyone who cared to listen that using the title “leader of the party” for any president produced by PDP was misleading because such a title was anathema to the PDP constitution. “The leader of our party is the national chairman while state chairmen of the party are the leaders of the party at the state level and down the ladder,” Nnamani said to a standing ovation. Yar’Adua commended him for the bold explanation and added that it was not enough for anybody to call himself or herself leader. It is on record that since that meeting, OBJ has never attended any other NEC meeting.
The Ghost of 2015
Article 12.76 of the PDP constitution provides for the BoT as an organ of the party and the same section provides that a member of the organ shall not be less than 50 years while the chairman and the secretary of the organ shall serve a single term of five years. In the countdown to the BoT meeting, something strange happened. Perhaps it was deliberate, perhaps accidental, but election billboards appeared in the business district of Abuja calling on Jonathan to stand for re-election in 2015. This opened the political season of the New Year.
Jonathan’s Spokesman Reuben Abati improbably claimed that the President’s political team had no involvement. Aso Rock insiders told Huhuonline.com that Jonathan is unlikely to announce his intentions until late 2014. The probability is that Jonathan will seek the candidacy of the PDP, even if he has to face opposition from northerners.
It was against this backdrop of 2015 that the BoT meeting held at the Presidential Villa, presided at by Jonathan. Huhuonline.com learnt that a group within PDP advised Jonathan to endorse a South-South aspirant for the BoT post because that will oil his 2015 machinery. Jonathan subsequently threw his weight behind Chief Tony Anenih, but the PDP Governors declined to support him.
The Governors are divided on the issue as many of them believe that allowing the BoT chairman to emerge from the same zone as Jonathan will be a masterstroke that will make it practically impossible to wrestle the presidency from Jonathan. Anenih, fondly called ‘Mr. Fix it’ has not been able to fix a lot of things lately in PDP, particularly in Edo State, his home. Some analysts said his recent appointment, as chairman of Nigerian Ports Authority (NPA) board, was a strategy to placate the man.
As negotiations and horse trading intensified, other PDP top brass amongst them former Senate President, Ken Nnamani supported by the legislators and Alhaji Shuaib Oyedokun, the former Deputy National Chairman of the party threw their hats into the ring thereby further polarizing the political arena. When the curtains came down, at least 12 candidates were postulating for the BoT chair. From the South East included: Alex Ekwueme, Ken Nnamani and the publisher of Champion newspapers, Chief Emmanuel Iwuanyanwu.
From the South-South came Chief Tony Anenih and Chief Don Etiebet. The aspirants from the North Central geo-political zone included former PDP national chairman, Rtd. Colonel Ahmadu Ali while the South West had former PDP Deputy National chairman, Alhaji Shuaibu Oyedokun. Others are Senator Bode Olayinka, Chief Yekeen Adeojo, Senator Onyeabor Obi, Chief Harry Akande and Chief Shuaibu Oyedokun. With these razz mattazz of candidates, the battle of egos for the conscience of the PDP was launched and nobody can easily predict how and when it will end.
Political Calculations, Intrigues and Maneuvers Galore
Amidst the conflicting assertions and claims, OBJ held most of the aces as he is approbating and re-probating at the same time. OBJ worked behind the scenes to ensure that the meeting to elect the BoT chairman was postponed because of his indecision on who to support as his candidate for the position. It is believed that he wants to pick his own candidate, regardless of what the other members think.
There is the belief that the Presidency and PDP leaders preferred Anenih, at least to compensate him for the loss of the same position in 2007. At a meeting held at the residence of Bamanga Tukur, it was suggested that all the other candidates should step down for Anenih because he enjoys the respect of the party top brass and would be a great asset in the 2015 election. But they declined. If the possibility of having Anenih (who comes from the same geopolitical zone as the President) as BoT chairman; is slim; if Anenih, with all the influence he wields within PDP is having such opposition on account of where he comes from, then the case of Chief Don Etiebet can be best imagined.
Huhuonline.com equally learnt that most of the party members would prefer Alex Ekwueme; having served in that capacity before, and as someone who contributed immensely to the founding and building of the PDP, Ekwueme was in the position to help the rebuilding process, which the party leadership has so much canvassed. But at 80 years, Ekwueme is tottering on the borders of senile decay. It is equally believed that the party has given Ekwueme a sensitive assignment of leading 53 other prominent PDP members to carry out reconciliation and that is enough to engage his attention.
For Ken Nnamani, many see him as a man who can effect radical changes and his record speaks volumes. It was during his tenure as Senate President that Obasanjo burnt his fingers when he wanted to secure the tenure elongation, which came to be known as ‘Third Term’ project. The singular role he played as a factor to thwart Obasanjo’s ambitions worked against him, especially among Obasanjo’s loyalists in the BoT. Sources said that Nnamani is also counting on his colleagues in the National Assembly who are members of BoT to do the magic. One other way that Nnamani could buffer his case is to leverage the support of his colleagues from the South East, Ekwueme and Iwuanyanwu to back him. Emmanuel Iwuanyanwu, a one-time PDP presidential aspirant feels that he has paid his dues in the PDP and that it is time for him to lead the conscience of the party.
OBJ loyalist and former PDP chairman, retired Col. Ahmadu Ali has indicated interest in the BoT chair but OBJ is uncertain if it will be a wise political decision to allow someone from the North to hold the position. Ali’s candidacy appears to be the most controversial of all. Most of the PDP members see him as an extension of Obasanjo’s administration a surrogate that is over 100% committed to OBJ’s course and would do anything for him. They feel that if truly Ali is vying for the position, then it is a matter of presenting to the party, a pig in pork. Ali’s candidacy is not opposed only by those from the South West that feel that they have been marginalized in the PDP equation, but also by those in his own region. There is a strong feeling that the Senate president is vehemently opposed to the candidacy of Ali, as his being the chairman of BoT will adversely affect his own political influence.
If by some strange happenstance Ali becomes the BoT chairman, the implication is that the North would be adding another strategic position to its kitty. Currently, they are holding the office of the Senate President, Speaker of the House of Representatives, the General Secretary of the party, the national chairman of the party, the secretary of the BoT and the publicity secretary of the party. It will therefore, become apparent that the entire North will hold the PDP making it near impossible to stop them from taking the presidency in 2015.
But the South West is stiffly opposed to his candidacy. They are supporting one of their own, Alhaji Oyedokun and are persuading OBJ to withdraw his support for Ali and invest on Oyedokun, whose last office was National Deputy Chairman of the party some five years ago and has been in hibernation since then. Coming from the South West, OBJ is being persuaded by the party leaders in the zone to drop Ali for Oyedokun, being a kinsman. With the cry of marginalization from the South West, many are guessing OBJ will be the pillar on which Oyedokun can anchor his aspiration. Some BoT members argued against Oyedokun citing his brief sojourn outside the party after he led a group to operate a parallel PDP called ‘The Original PDP in 2006.’ OBJ dislodged the group.
With all these geo-political calculations, it is evident that if Jonathan is nursing an ambition to seek re-election in 2015, he has to demonstrate deft political shrewdness because his opponents are making the ground very swampy and slippery and extremely difficult for him to muster sufficient support that would earn him a second term in office.
OBJ & GEJ: Clash of the Titans
A sprawling view of Abeokuta lies prostrate from his hilltop mansion, a metaphor for the clout of its owner, a man whose sheer strength of character held an impossible Nigeria in the palm of his hand for eight long years. It is not for nothing that he is called Baba, yet another aphorism for some sort of a hard-to-get-to-know paterfamilias, whose offspring would usually approach with great trepidation, not knowing exactly what to expect.
Long after he left office, as President of the Federal Republic, General Olusegun Obasanjo’s home is still like a pilgrimage abode, with hordes of visitors, trooping in and out, to hold court for one reason, or the other - Baba’s opinion, influence and wise counsel, still count. The man is, indeed, an enigma. Playful, as a kitten, wise, as an oracle, hard, as a tornado-nail, and wily, as a fox, you have to watch your step - every step of the way - with the General. OBJ is the one man now standing between Jonathan and the 2015 elections.
The relationship between OBJ and GEJ has been anything but cordial. OBJ is insisting that for any reconciliation between him and the president to be meaningful, on the election of the BoT chairman, the president, as the leader of the party, must avail him the privilege to nominate and present his successor. That was the condition he gave Jonathan for participating in the reconciliatory moves initiated by the president to shore up the diminishing cordiality between them that had rapidly degenerating into verbal wars and invidious political maneuvers.
Huhuonline.com learnt from sources that OBJ also requested that his successor must be of South West extraction, but at the time of the election, OBJ had not found a credible candidate from the South West that would effectively represent the zone and manage the affairs of the party at that level, so he absented himself and ensured that the election did not hold.
Facing the battle for his own political survival, GEJ has decided to call off the bluff by taking the battle for the soul of the PDP to OBJ’s home State of Ogun, with a view to wrestling the party from the grips of Baba. GEJ considers the South-West as strategic to his presidential ambitions in 2015 and the general elections. The South-West may not produce a presidential candidate for the PDP in 2015 but block votes from the zone could determine the eventual winner of the presidential election. To which end, the PDP leadership headed by Tukur is planning to organize a fresh congress in the South-West to definitely replace Oyinlola. This explains why even though Oyinlola is battling his destitution in court, Tukur went ahead and replaced him with his successor since GEJ does not want him to return as national secretary.
The PDP, in Obasanjo’s home state, is divided into two factions with Baba supporting the Senator Dipo Odujurin- led executive, while business magnate, Chief Buruji Kashamu is backing the Adebayo Dayo-led executive. The Kashamu-led faction initiated the legal battles with the Obasanjo-backed faction, which culminated in the removal of Oyinlola. GEJ is building strategic alliances with strange political bed-fellows in Ogun State. Former Ogun State Governor, Otunba Gbenga Daniel, has been having unfettered access in the Presidency. GEJ recently appointed one of Daniel’s loyalists, Alhaja Salimot Badru, as a member of the Federal Capital Development Authority. He has also nominated an ex-convict and PDP warlord, Chief Olabode “Bode” George, as a member of the Adamawa State Reconciliation Committee. Both Daniel and George are at loggerheads with Baba.
Things Fall Apart…
After the BoT passed up the opportunity to elect its new chairman because of its inability to choose name a consensus candidate from the dozen aspirants, a special committee to appropriately realign membership of the BoT to ensure credibility of the planned election was created with Professor Jerry Gana as chairman. The committee was given three weeks to submit its report.
But even before Gana and his committee could go to work, the National Working Committee (NWC) of the party threw a spanner in the works by recanting itself on its earlier sack of the PDP Adamawa State Executive Committee, recalling them after caving in to pressure from the party’s governors. Tukur was absent from the NWC meeting that took the decision. It was a face-saving move for the NWC, which the governors were threatening to sack and replace with a caretaker committee if the sacked executives were not reinstated.
The recall of the committee reignited the supremacy battle between Tukur and the Governor of Adamawa State, Murtala Nyako, which formally began in October 2012 when the NWC dissolved the Adamawa State party executive, chaired by Alhaji Umaru Kugama, replacing it with a nine-man caretaker committee headed by Amb. Umar Damagun. In dissolving the executive last year, the party’s National Publicity Secretary, Chief Olisa Metuh had announced that its members “flagrantly disregarded and shown serial disobedience to the decisions of NWC.” He accused the dissolved exco of conducting illegal local government elections and submitting a list of candidates to the Adamawa State Independent National Electoral Commission without obtaining clearance from the NWC.
The dissolution was a slap on the face of Adamawa Governor Nyako who tried in vain to reverse the decision. Face with a fait accompli, Nyako referred the matter to the Nigerian Governors Forum (NGF). The NGF led by its chairman Governor Rotimi Amaechi of Rivers State then joined Nyako in seeking a reversal of the sack and after they were rebuffed, they decided to handle it the tough way. They told Jonathan in no unflattering terms that Tukur the PDP national chairman must resign! Tukur was not their candidate during the party’s convention but was imposed on the party by the President. To save face, Jonathan ordered the NWC to reverse its earlier decision and disavow Tukur.
Esau’s voice, Jocob’s Hand
In the face of the strong-arm tactics by the governors, Jonathan came under pressure from hardliners within his own camp who asked him to call the governors’ bluff by disbanding the Nigeria Governors’ Forum saying it had become a vehicle for confusion. A statement issued by the chairman of the Nigerian Renewal Group, consisting of young professional men and women members of the PDP, noted “with great concern the discordant tunes emanating from the ruling party, the PDP. We are concerned because the governors elected on the PDP platform, who constitute the majority, have practically abandoned their primary responsibilities in their various states. They have turned themselves into an unholy pressure group and trade union under the inglorious Governors Forum.”
“Indeed, we view the Governors Forum as a club for idle talk and mischief making. Our stand is validated by the recent gang-up of PDP Governors against the PDP National Chairman, Alhaji Bamanga Tukur. We hold no brief for the elder statesman, but we are worried that if these governors are not checked, they will soon hold the nation’s political apparatus to ransom. That will not augur well for good governance and democracy,” the statement read in part.
Armed with renewed confidence, Jonathan decided it was time to take the bull by the horns. The President is believed to have influenced the decision of the court to sack Oyinlola from office. And to put paid to this assertion, Jonathan instructed Tukur to go ahead and replace Oyinlola with his Deputy, Solomon Onwe even though Oyinlola’s lawyer had filed an appeal for a stay of execution of the non-declaratory judgment. Tukur then washed his hands off in a tepid statement saying his action was in fulfillment of the PDP constitution, explaining that the party had no hand in the removal of Oyinlola as its National Secretary.
Stressing that there was no rift between Tukur and Oyinlola, the party said: “For the avoidance of doubt, we want to say unequivocally that there is no personal rift between Alhaji Bamanga Tukur, as the National Chairman of the Party, and Prince Olagunsoye Oyinlola to warrant the sensational headlines that have been published in newspapers on the issue. In any event, reports have indicated that Prince Olagunsoye Oyinlola has appealed the Court judgment and the NWC wants to say that as soon as the appeal is decided, the party will, in the same way as it did in the case of the Federal High Court ruling, obey the appeal decision.
After replacing Oyinlola, the party’s leadership headed by Tukur made a spectacular U-turn on its perceived rush to get Oyinlola out of the way by filing an application for stay of execution of the court judgment which sacked Oyinlola from office. Investigations showed that as Tukur had adopted strategies to ensure that Oyinlola did not return as national secretary, most members of the National Working Committee were determined to save him. As part of measures to seize the control of the party in the South-West from Obasanjo and the PDP governors, Tukur planned to hold a congress in the South-West, where Oyinlola’s replacement would be picked. But Huhuonline.com understands that while the PDP chairman is loyal to Jonathan, most members of the NWC are backed by PDP governors and former President Olusegun Obasanjo.
Meanwhile, as the horse-trading continues, Tukur has secured the backing of PDP lawmakers after the leadership of the House of Representatives led by the Speaker and the Deputy Speaker, Aminu Tambuwal and Emeka Ihehioha paid him a solidarity visit and pledged their support for the party’s transformation agenda. Tukur assured the South West geopolitical zone that it would not lose in the distribution of benefits.
The End Game
The crisis rocking the PDP will make or break Jonathan’s 2015 presidential ambitions. There will be winners as well as losers but the political equation will never be the same again. Already, the governors elected on the platform of the party have called for the immediate convening of the National Executive Committee meeting of the party where they are planning to pass a vote of no confidence on Tukur. They have also endorsed the decision of the NWC rescinding the dissolution of the PDP Adamawa State Executive and reaffirmed their recognition of the Kugama-led executive elected in March 2012 and endorsed by the national convention.
To add insult to injury, 10 of the 12 members of the NWC disowned the action of the party’s Chairman, Dr. Bamanga Tukur, on the crisis rocking the Adamawa State chapter of the party. Tukur, who is from Adamawa, is alleged to be preparing one of his sons as the governor of the state in 2015. The NWC members, led by the party’s Deputy National Chairman, Dr. Sam Jaja, said ongoing local government and ward congresses in the state were not authorized by the NWC. They also restored the Executive Committee of the party in the state, which was sacked by the NWC last October 17.
Jonathan: the end justifies the means
As the melodramatic elements of this unfolding crisis reach a rising crescendo, Jonathan must make a decision. He can choose to stand by the embattled and beleaguered Tukur and alienate the NWC and the NGF or ditch Tukur as part of a grand bargain with the NGF that will secure him the 2015 PDP ticket. The governors have nothing against Jonathan; he has incurred their wrath because of his stubborn support for Tukur. There has been no love lost between Tukur and Adamawa State Governor Murtala Nyako since the former assumed the chairmanship of the party March last year.
There are no easy options but the best case scenario will be for Jonathan to pick the next PDP national chairman from a non-PDP state. PDP governors are too powerful and they exert much influence in the polity. It is political suicide to ignore the power play between a national chairman and his governor. In the North-East where the PDP currently zoned its chairmanship, only Borno and Yobe states are non-PDP states. It makes good political sense for Jonathan to abandon the embattled Tukur and go for a younger candidate without as many enemies as Tukur.
In the coming weeks, Tukur will know his fate. Already, Jonathan is under pressure to abandon Tukur to his fate and to consider picking Tukur’s successor from Borno or Yobe, in order to avoid the usual power tussle between the party’s national chairman and his state governor. The question is whether Jonathan is prepared to abandon his friend at his greatest moment of need. The answer is obvious: in politics, there are no permanent friends or enemies; only permanent interests.
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Gunmen believed to be kidnappers attacked a commercial vehicle belonging to Benue Links, the state-owned transport company.
About 17 candidates travelling to Otukpo for their examination centres in the ongoing Unified Tertiary Matriculation Examination (UTME) are feared to have been abducted, although the exact number of victims remains unclear.
Information available to our correspondent says that the incident took place between 7–8 p.m. on Wednesday, April 15, along the Benue Burnt Bricks in Otukpo, Otukpo Local Government Area (LGA) of Benue State.
According to sources, the assailants waylaid the bus and robbed the occupants of their belongings before whisking them away into the bush.
An eyewitness, who spoke to journalists on the condition of anonymity, said the Benue Links bus, which was conveying about 18 passengers, ran into the kidnappers at about 8:00 p.m. on Wednesday night.
“The passengers were mainly young persons heading to Otukpo to sit for the JAMB examination scheduled for Thursday.
“Two people, the driver and one passenger, managed to escape. Incidentally, the passengers were mainly young men and women who travelled to sit for the JAMB examination scheduled for today (Thursday),” he said.
When contacted, the General Manager of Benue Links, Mr Alexander Fanafa, confirmed the incident, noting that the driver of the bus is presently undergoing interrogation at the police station in Otukpo for violating the company’s safety policy not to travel beyond 6:00 p.m.
He said, “As I speak with you, the driver has been arrested and is under investigation for traveling against company directive. I have warned all drivers to stop night journeys, as they would be held as first suspects if anything unfortunate happens.”
The General Manager further stated that the driver took his vehicle and loaded the passengers who were heading to Otukpo after official hours when the park manager, Mr Amedu, had closed, and ran into trouble, so he has been arrested.
The Executive Chairman of Otukpo Local Government Council, Prince Maxwell Ogiri, confirmed the incident, saying that it occurred between 7 and 8 p.m. on Wednesday.
He added that security agents have been mobilized to rescue the victims, stating that the victims are all young people coming to Otukpo to write JAMB examinations.
“It is true, I’m just coming out from a security meeting, and security operatives have been moved into the forest to help rescue the kidnapped victims.
“The victims are mainly young boys and girls coming to Otukpo to write JAMB,” Ogiri said.
However, when contacted, the Benue State Commissioner of Police, Ifeanyi Emenari, confirmed the situation, but said 14 passengers were kidnapped, while one passenger escaped.
The commissioner disclosed that he had already arrived in Otukpo and is conducting the rescue operation.
“I am in Otukpo now with all my team and DPOs who are here in the bush, and I am heading the operation.
“What happened was that one Benue Links bus carrying passengers coming to Otukpo was stopped and attacked by hoodlums, and 14 passengers were kidnapped, but one was able to escape,” he said.
According to him, the command had commenced an investigation into the incident, particularly the circumstances surrounding the journey.
He maintained that Benue Links management has a policy against night travel, but the driver allegedly picked up passengers after official hours.
“We know that Benue Links has a policy and don’t usually drive at night. So from what I got, they have already closed, but the driver, for reasons best known to him which we are still trying to find out, picked passengers along the road, and when he came here, the story you have is what we are having.
“But as we are investigating, we are on the ground to make sure that the victims are rescued,” Emenari said.
News
There are governments that save for the rainy day, governments that prepare for the storm, and governments that, when the heavens open and money falls like tropical rain, rush outside with buckets full of holes. Nigeria, under President Bola Tinubu, has perfected a fourth category: the government that borrows during a windfall. It is a feat of fiscal acrobatics so astonishing that even the most cynical observers of Abuja’s budgetary theatre must pause in admiration. For decades, Nigeria has squandered oil booms with the reliability of a metronome. But this administration has achieved something more ambitious: it has managed to squander a boom before it even finishes arriving.
The US–Iran war has sent oil prices soaring to $115 per barA Government Addicted to Debtrel, nearly double the government’s benchmark of $64.85. Nigeria is earning an extra $92 million every single day; a torrent of unbudgeted cash that would make even the most jaded petro state accountant blush. In barely a month, Abuja has pocketed almost $3 billion in windfall revenue. If the conflict drags on, the country could rake in $30–$36 billion this year alone. And what has the Tinubu administration done with this unexpected bounty? Why, it has gone on a borrowing binge, of course.
In the past week alone, the National Assembly approved: a $5 billion loan from First Abu Dhabi Bank; a $1 billion UKEF backed loan for Lagos ports; a $6 billion external borrowing package, rubber stamped in under four hours, and a N68.323 trillion budget; the largest in Nigeria’s history. This is not fiscal policy. This is a national credit card with no spending limit. Nigeria’s public debt now hovers around $115 billion, and debt servicing will gulp N20.5 trillion in 2026; more than the budgets of health, education, and infrastructure combined. Yet the government borrows as though it were a teenager discovering online shopping for the first time. One might have expected that a historic oil windfall would inspire restraint. Instead, Abuja behaves like a gambler who wins the lottery and immediately takes out a loan to buy more lottery tickets.
The Senate: From Upper Chamber to Upper Cashier
The Senate’s role in this farce deserves special mention. Once conceived as a check on executive excess, it now functions as a conveyor belt for presidential loan requests. The $6 billion borrowing package was approved with the speed of a fast food order; no debate, no scrutiny, no hesitation. Former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, hardly a stranger to Nigeria’s fiscal melodramas, described the approval as “reckless urgency.” He is being polite. The Senate has not merely abdicated oversight; it has embraced its new role as a ceremonial stamp of approval, a kind of legislative rubber chicken waved over every loan document. One wonders whether senators even bother to read the fine print anymore, or whether they simply check the exchange rate, sigh, and sign.
The Oil Windfall That Will Not Be Saved
Other countries treat oil windfalls as blessings. Norway built a sovereign wealth fund so large it could buy entire countries. Saudi Arabia uses its surpluses to diversify its economy. Even Angola; long mocked for its corruption, has learned to stash away a portion of its oil riches. Nigeria, by contrast, treats windfalls as invitations to spend more, borrow more, and plan less. The Excess Crude Account, once envisioned as a rainy day fund, is now emptier than a politician’s promise after election day. The Sovereign Wealth Fund is a polite fiction. And fiscal discipline is a rumor whispered in the corridors of the Ministry of Finance. The tragedy is not that Nigeria is poor. The tragedy is that Nigeria is mismanaged.
The revised N68.323 trillion budget is a monument to fiscal optimism. It allocates N15.8 trillion to debt servicing; N15.4 trillion to recurrent expenditure, and N32.2 trillion to capital projects, many of them rolled over from previous years because the government failed to implement them. This is not a budget. It is a wish list. The government insists that the spending spree will “stimulate growth,” “unlock infrastructure,” and “stabilize the economy.” These are the same phrases Nigerian governments have used since the 1970s, usually moments before the economy collapses under the weight of its own contradictions.
Borrowing to Service Borrowing
The most farcical element of the Tinubu administration’s fiscal strategy is its reliance on borrowing to service existing borrowing. Nigeria now borrows to pay interest on previous loans, borrows to refinance old debts, borrows to fund recurrent expenditure, and borrows to cover budget gaps. This is not fiscal management. It is a Ponzi scheme with national colors. The administration insists that the debt is “sustainable.” So did Greece in 2008. So did Argentina in 2001. So did Nigeria in the 1980s; right before the IMF arrived with structural adjustment programs (SAP) that Nigerians still curse today.
Nigeria’s economy is a house built on sand: the naira remains fragile, inflation is suffocating households, foreign investors are fleeing, debt service consumes most of national revenue, oil production is unstable and non oil revenue is anemic. And yet, in the middle of this storm, the government has chosen to borrow more; at a moment when it should be saving aggressively. The oil windfall is a gift. But gifts require stewardship. And stewardship requires discipline. Neither is in abundant supply in Abuja.
Conclusion: A Nation at the Edge of a Fiscal Cliff
The expanded budget includes lavish allocations to the judiciary ahead of the 2027 elections, feasibility studies for politically convenient infrastructure, and capital projects that conveniently align with electoral maps. This is not economic planning. It is election year choreography. Nigeria is not being prepared for the future. It is being prepared for the polls.
The Tinubu administration inherited a difficult economy. But it has chosen to make it worse. Instead of using the oil windfall to rebuild reserves, strengthen the currency, reduce borrowing, and stabilize the economy, it has embarked on a reckless spending spree financed by loans that future generations will be forced to repay. Nigeria is earning billions, and saving nothing. And it is borrowing everything. History will not be kind to this moment. Nor will the bond markets. In the end, Nigeria’s tragedy is not that it lacks resources. It is that it lacks restraint. And in Abuja today, restraint is as scarce as electricity.
Business
In The Spotlight
On Friday, Nigeria’s Defence Headquarters confirmed the death of the Commander of the 29 Task Force Brigade in Benisheikh, Borno State, Brigadier General Oseni Braimah, and three other soldiers, following a ruthless attack on the military formation. Though this confirmation calmed initial reports that more than 17 soldiers were killed in the April 9, 2026 attack, it, however, ignited a deeper cause for concern among Nigerians, considering the fact that just about five months earlier, another brigadier general, Musa Uba, was murdered in cruel but avoidable circumstances near Wajiroko, in the same Borno State.
The attack on the military formation was not the only terrorist strike that week. That same Thursday, the devastating news of the soldiers who paid the supreme price had not been fully digested when another report filtered in, at night, that no fewer than eight persons had been killed by gunmen, in Mbwelle village, Bokkos Local Government Area of Plateau State. This was besides the bloodshed recorded in Shanga Local Government Area of Kebbi State on Easter Sunday, where 24 people were killed, according to the Kontagora Catholic Diocese, and in Kebbi and Kwara states, where 49 villagers were reportedly killed on Friday.
Despite the confusion, mourning and grief that followed the killing of these helpless civilians in various communities, described by authorities as some of the deadliest incidents recorded in recent months, the report of the military formation invasion and the killing of soldiers specifically caused panic attacks among citizens and gave a “hopeless situation” slant to the worsening security crisis. And this has become a trend since the beginning of the Boko Haram insurgency in 2009.
It is true that Nigeria’s security forces under the current administration have been dismantling bandit networks and killing scores of terrorists. But the relentless attacks on innocent citizens, which have led to the death of over 10,000 people in two years, and the kidnapping of more than 1,100 people in northern Nigeria, in just four months, appear to have enveloped security agencies’ efforts and boxed the current All Progressives Congress administration into a more precarious corner than previous opposition governments.
A few analysts have tried to compare the security situation under the late former President Muhammadu Buhari with the situation now. While some scored the President Bola Tinubu administration above his predecessor’s, others like Olu Fasan, in his article: “Recurring bloodbath: Nigeria is too fragile, too fractured to be safe”, said, “It has taken Tinubu less than three years in office to achieve a worse security situation than Buhari did in (his) eight years in power.”
I may not directly agree with this notion, but I know that the prevailing economic hardship or widespread poverty in the country, despite significant, growth-targeted policy reforms like exchange rate unification, subsidy removal, and fiscal coordination, can be justifiably linked to rising insecurity.
The Nigerian Institute of Social and Economic Research, in a 2024 study brief, titled: “Insecurity takes the lead as the key driver of poverty in Nigeria”, said, “Once a country experiences conflict and insecurity, it faces a reversal of economic development, which in turn increases the likelihood of further conflict, resulting in a cycle economists refer to as doom-loop. By undermining household livelihood activities on massive scales in Nigeria, increasing insecurity in the last five years has not only intensified poverty in the country, but has also opened up new frontiers of multidimensional poverty across Nigeria.”
Insecurity, according to NISER, drives poverty by disrupting and destroying livelihood activities and by reducing access to basic needs, thereby stifling meaningful improvement in the quality of life in Nigeria. This argument can be better appreciated if one considers how many Nigerians have abandoned leisure or commercial farming, especially in rural areas, owing to rising insecurity.
It would be unfair to pin the blame for this lingering crisis on the current administration; past governments were not also able to do much to stem the tide. But the fact that political IOUs seemed to have trumped competence during the initial formation of President Tinubu’s cabinet inadvertently gave room for unpalatable political treatment of delicate security matters across the states.
The Ministry of Defence, according to analysts, was the worst hit until recently, as analysts found it difficult to decode the consideration behind the choice of the two ministers who were initially saddled with such a priority responsibility. Perhaps, if the issue of security had been given the kind of attention it is being given now, from the beginning of the current administration, the terrorists might not have been this emboldened amid international focus.
The result is that, unlike when Nigeria was ranked the Number One Destination for Investment in Africa for two consecutive years (2012 and 2013), other African countries have, since then, continued to displace the nation, owing to a combination of factors, including accessibility and innovation, economic stability and investment climate, among others.
Of the 31 countries that were tracked in the 2024 edition of the “Where to Invest in Africa” report, published by Rand Merchant Bank and the Gordon Institute of Business Science, Nigeria was ranked as the ninth most viable destination for investment in Africa, behind South Africa, in fourth position; and Ghana, sixth. The 2025 report sadly reflected a further decline for Nigeria, by nine places, to the 18th position.
It doesn’t take an economist to understand that banditry, kidnapping, killings, among other forms of security crisis being witnessed on a large scale in Nigeria, can seriously damage the investment climate and trigger capital flight. Any government that picks the socio-economic well-being of its citizens as Number One on its priority chart must, therefore, go all out to first ensure the security of lives and property, against all odds.
That the Federal Government has published a list of 48 individuals linked to terrorism financing is a step in the right direction. That it has also secured 386 convictions, out of 508 cases in a mass terrorists’ trial, is another feat that can deter others and stem the tide, but politicians must, in the interest of the masses and the well-being of the nation, stop playing politics with this sensitive issue of insecurity.
Rather than mock or blame the APC administration for the current predicament, opposition figures and Nigerians as a whole must converge on the need to be united against this monster. However, the Tinubu administration must also avoid actions or statements that could trigger a revolt at this period. With the economic challenges from almost every angle, Nigerians seem to be constantly on edge.
In March 2014, the APC, then the main opposition party, lambasted the former President Goodluck Jonathan administration for trying to cover up its “incompetence and cluelessness” in tackling the Boko Haram insurgency.
The APC, in a statement signed by Lai Mohammed, its interim National Publicity Secretary at the time, said, “A country that has no discernible counter-terrorism strategy that will clearly identify the multiple means for preventing, responding and defeating terrorist groups, including the alignment of political, military, social and economic instruments and objectives, cannot expect to successfully battle any insurgency.”
Now that the APC is the ruling party, and Nigeria is still not out of the woods, should citizens still agree with the party’s assertion? How the authorities handle the situation will determine the answer. What goes around comes around!
In The Spotlight
Nearly 40 years ago in London, I was invited to dinner by a Nigerian woman I knew in Lagos.
She had described the place in general terms, but I arrived at an upscale home with some serious luxury. She was kind enough to show me around, and following a stylish dinner, she described how she had acquired the place, mentioning headline Nigerian names.
I had no reason to doubt her: some of them called during the evening. I declined her offer to share her conversations with them.
It was my personal introduction to the scale of Nigerian property in the English capital, as she described who owned what or lived where.
While my visits to England at the time were work-related and I had little time to socialise, I did meet several teenage Nigerian students whose parents were glad to send them abroad for education.
They patrolled the streets of London in exotic cars, and I thought it was ironic that, in isolation away from Nigeria, the young ladies were often being manipulated by their fathers’ friends.
In the decades that followed, I read stories of politically exposed Nigerians, particularly state governors, for whom the UK was the first address in money laundering.
On a few occasions, I have alluded to that phenomenon in this column. They acquired expensive homes, cars and even gold phones. One, Diepreye Alamieyeseigha, fled London disguised as a woman. Another, James Ibori, was tried and jailed.
Keep in mind that there have been about 185 governors since May 1999, and that London is nearly always their first port of call.
It is humbling to reflect on what percentage of this number has, in the past 26 years, sunk Nigerian wealth into the soil of England, with considerable swathes lost to middlemen and smooth women.
Remember: in 2006, the then-Minister of State for Finance, Nenadi Usman, criticised governors, saying that they disappeared abroad just days after receiving state allocations and after visiting Bureau De Change operators.
In 2007, a famous Human Rights Watch report, “Chop Fine,” described the case of Rivers State in grim detail.
The problem is that it is not always governors, as demonstrated by the story, “Abuja on Thames,” which appeared in the British monthly, Private Eye, in March 2019. That month, I commented on that story, which involved the astonishing wealth in that country of Paul Ogwuma, a former governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria.
The full Nigerian picture of capital flight, elite consumption, and political patronage was on display when the Panama Papers in 2016 and the Pandora Papers in 2021, two massive international media investigations in which our Premium Times participated, uncovered how the world’s rich and powerful deploy offshore mechanisms to hide their possessions.
As always happens, no Nigerian lost a kobo, let alone a heartbeat, as a result of those investigations, because in Nigeria, crime and hypocrisy quite literally pay.
And then in 2024, a list appeared of 58 deceased Nigerians with unclaimed assets in the UK, as part of a daily-updated “Bona Vacantia” (BV) list, meaning that having remained unclaimed, they are now considered the property of the Crown.
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The Nigerian government does not inform Nigerians about the BV list or the claims process, so those properties are probably lost forever.
Remember also, the case of Nigerian “government” property on the verge of forfeiture in the UK a few years ago. In New York and Maryland, in the US, Nigerian governors and diplomats have left behind a long trail of property issues. In 2012, Alamieyeseigha forfeited $401,931 in traceable assets to the US government when President Jonathan’s government failed to claim them.
And so, the rich continue to flourish, and in January 2026, Tax Policy Associates of the UK published the extensive investigation, ‘Who secretly owns Britain? The hidden offshore owners of £460bn of UK property.’
A report in The Londoner, based on that investigation, peeled back the layers to link the late Herbert Wigwe, the former chief executive of Access Holdings, to about 106 properties. That placed him at No. 7 on a list of “The overseas power players in London’s property market,” with each property registered under shell companies outside the country, leaving none of them directly traceable to him.
While some of these practices are legal, especially on the part of private businessmen, the problem is that Nigeria has, for decades, been burdened by an army of much smaller ants eating away at her. Most of them are pillars of society, either claiming sainthood or praying for it, while the people from whom they amassed their wealth starve to death.
But there is another side: in Nigeria, the Tax Policy Associates investigation, like the arrests of Dariye and Alamieyeseigha and the trial of Ibori, would have been impossible.
“Abuja on Thames” would never have been investigated or published. Not the Pandora Papers. Not the Panama Papers.
Because we are traders. We are either buying or selling. When the aroma of money or power is present, some would sell their very souls. It is why we are where we are.
The system, of course, is in many ways pre-rigged. On real estate matters, we operate a fragmented administrative system with multiple overlapping authorities, incomplete digitisation, and overwhelming opacity. The FCT and state capitals are stories of greed.
This is because the Land Use Act vests all land in each state in the governor (and the President for the FCT). This means that, technically, no one “owns” land outright; one only holds a Certificate of Occupancy. That creates enormous scope for discretionary allocation and corruption, since governors and the FCT minister can grant or revoke rights, and often do.
This is why an FCT minister is a king. He can allocate land to whomever he pleases:
Relatives of the First Lady were thrice removed.
His wife.
Fourth cousins.
Underage children.
Governors, again.
EFCC officials.
ICPC officials.
Code of Conduct Bureau officials.
Girlfriends and their friends.
Supreme Court judges.
Court of Appeal judges.
INEC officials.
Senators.
Top police officers.
Among others, remember the FCT land scam of 2004; the Ministerial allegations involving the current FCT Minister, Nyesom Wike; and the 57 multi-billion-naira properties linked to former Attorney-General Abubakar Malami.
Just imagine what a Tax Policy Associates-style investigation of real estate ownership in Nigeria’s big cities would reveal.
Because in Nigeria, power is deployed into service only when we pray in the mosque or the church. Outside that, power is for the self.
And if you can export that power abroad in funds that belong to the commonwealth, to deprive other Nigerians of it and make you live like a king forever, so much the better!
Sonala Olumhense